ISLAMABAD-National Electric Power Regulatory Authority has approved 10 years Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP-2022-31), which emphasises on the use of indigenous resources for power generation and phasing out furnace oil usage for power generation by 2031.
The IGCEP 2022-31, submitted by NTDC, also forecast the retiring of power plants with the capacity of 8021MW from the system during the life time of the plan. The plan will be revised annually. It will act as a primary document for adding new capacity for generation to meet future electrical demand in a scientific and systematic manner, thus avoiding the boom and buswt cycles that have become a recurring issue in the country.
The IGCEP-2022 builds on the plans laid down by the preceding iteration and proposes a gradual shift from an energy mix heavily dominated by imported fossils like coal, furnace oil and RLNG towards one pillared by indigenous sources of energy, including hydel, Thar coal, wind and solar. Furnace oil is expected to be phased out by 2031. Similarly, electricity generation from RLNG and imported coal will drop to 2% and 8%, respectively, in 2031. At the same time, there will be a substantial increase in the electricity generated by hydel, wind and solar PV. The contribution of hydel, wind and solar PV which currently stands at 28%, 4% and 1% respectively will be increased to 39%, 10% and 10% respectively, thereby increasing the total share of green electricity to around 59%. The IGCEP-2022 also provides details for six additional scenarios, simulated to cater for any unforeseen events in the future. These include scenarios dealing with lower and higher electrical demands as well as four sensitivity scenarios dealing with early commissioning of Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project in 2029, commissioning of Chashma Nuclear (C-5) in 2029, inclusion of local coal power projects in 2027 and 2030 and unconstrained addition of projects based on renewable energy.
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However, the Authority has raised certain observations to the submitted IGCEP-2022-31 including (a) delay in submission of the IGCEP contrary to provisions of the Grid Code; (b). changes in the approved set of assumptions including new ones for the preparation of the IGCEP-2022-31: (c) observations of the stakeholders regarding input of data different what they submitted, (d) dropping bagasse and indigenous coal based projects. (e) more emphasis on energy security; (f) complete absence of 100 MW block annually for new technologies including hybrid of wind/solar PV, waste to energy, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), Power to X (P2X), electricity generation through green hydrogen and solar PV with battery backup projects as proposed by relevant agency, which need to be addressed, (g). non-submission of complete TSEP; (h) impact of upcoming competitive market.
In consideration of its observations, the Authonty directed NTDC to adhere to the provisions of the Grid Code especially PC-4 and PC-4 1, which is applicable document and binding, thus submitting the next revised iteration of the IGCEP-23-32 within the given timeline without any exception before 30th June 2023 after consulting all stakeholders including the provinces/AJK and GB. The Authonty may review/revise IGCEP anytime on its own or on the recommendatron/request of any stockholder/province/AJK and GB. The Authonty considers that output/results of IGCEP are directly linked with the provided input. The Authority has observed that for the IGCEP-2021-30, NTDC used the CCI approved assumptions which have been broadly maintained but there are a few differences as well. In order to avoid any confusion, the Authority directed NTDC to have the assumptions approved from it for the iteration of IGCEP-2023-32. The Authority has observed that in the current IGCEP-2022-31, there is huge emphasis on utilizing indigenous resources and more than 77% of the installed capacity will be based on the said sources. The Authority considers that in the changing global dynamics there is a need to even further increase the use of indigenous resources of energy. The Authority directed NTDC to further review the said proposition and provide a scenario including both the C-5 and 2 x 1320 MW local coal projects in the next iteration.
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The Authority has observed that there is issue of municipal waste in the country which is causing multiple problems of health and environment. One of the most efficient use of this solid waste is to use it for power generation as it has very good calorific value but no WiE projects have been considered in the submitted IGCEP due to non-provision of data and other related information from the relevant agencies. The Authority directed NTDC to liaison with the relevant provincial and federal agencies and get the required information to have a suitable quota for waste projects and other emerging new technologies including hybrid of wind/solar PV, concentrated solar power (CSP). The Authority further directed NTDC to consult all the relevant stakeholders and come up with a proposal for inclusion of suitable block of capacity on the said technologies. The regulator considered that in order to have Least Cost Generation, it is imperative that IGCEP and TSEP are submitted simultaneously to have proper and a fair estimate of the end consumer cost of a project. The Authority directed NTDC to coordinate with MoEPD and the provincial govt to expedite the formulation of the required criteria on top priority basis.
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The Authority has noted that NTDC has not considered impact of upcoming competitive market on the demand which is going to be in operation maximum by April 30, 2023 as the required moratorium will automatically be lifted. The Authority considered that NTDC must liaise with the CPPA-G to have a fair estimate of the potential defection of the demand due to competitive market and accordingly make provision for the same. The Authority expressed its concern that there is very less emphasis on the OSM which is also very critical. The Authority directed NTDC to have a close liaison with all the relevant agencies to have updated estimates of the OSM for incorporating in the IGCEP. The Authority has observed that there is great emphasis on the induction VRE of wind and solar being cost effective.