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If skyscrapers followed a human course of
development, we might say they're about to enter puberty. By 2020 the
world's 20 tallest towers will achieve an average height of 1,962 feet
(nearly 600 meters).
That's more than 500 feet taller than their average height in 2010, and
more than 700 feet taller than the average in 2000 — or about the
difference of the entire height of the Met Life building in New York,
which was the world's tallest when it was completed in 1909.
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Earlier this month the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat
released a diagram of the what the world's tallest buildings will be
come 2020:
By 2020, according to the council's accompanying report, nine buildings
will eclipse (or nearly break) the "megatall" barrier of roughly 2,000
feet (or 600 meters) — twice the height of the Eiffel Tower.
As a point of comparison with today's skyscrapers, consider that the
Petronas Towers, which were the tallest in the world when completed in
1998, will rank just 27th when 2020 arrives.
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In the words of the council's report, "600 m seems to be the new 300 m."
Likewise, 300 meters (or 984 feet) seems to be the new snowman: by 2020
an estimated 198 towers will reach that height, compared to just 15 in
1995.
All but one of the towers on the top 20 list will be built in the Middle
East or Asia. The lone representative from the Western hemisphere will
be One World Trade Center, which will scrape sky at a patriotic 1,776
feet (or a less patriotic 541 meters) with its radio antenna.
(Which, by the way, why are skyscrapers allowed to include antennas in
their height? If reaching my hand upward counted in my height I'd be
playing center for the Knicks.) China leads the list with ten of the
towers in seven different cities — the tallest being the Ping An Finance
Center, in Shenzhen, at 2,165 feet (660 meters).
The tallest tower in the works is the Kingdom Tower in Jeddah, a city on
the western coast of Saudi Arabia. The tower will soar to 3,280 feet
(over 1,000 meters), making it more than 500 feet taller than the
world's current champion, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Built at a cost of
$1.2 billion, the completed Kingdom Tower will be a mixed-use facility
that includes a luxury hotel, luxury condominiums, and office space, in
addition to the world's highest observatory.
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It will also boast "one of the world's most sophisticated elevator
systems," according Adrian Smith and Gordon Gill, the project's lead
architect [PDF] — with observatory elevators reaching speeds of 10
meters per second, or over 22 miles per hour.
There's certainly a whose-is-bigger element to the recent height craze,
but at some point cities must recognize that a tall building stops
generating density and starts creating problems of its own. As a
building's height increases, it requires more energy to construct and
maintain. With that additional height also comes a drop in space
efficiency, with structural support occupying area that might otherwise
go toward tenants.
Earlier this year the financial analyst Vikram Mansharamani even
wondered if China's lust for skyscrapers represents unnecessary spending
and, by extension, belies a real estate bubble. |