The lead Tank of the column rumble pass the stunned
onlookers, German-made Leopard 2, with Turkish military insignia rolls across
from the border ofTurkey, on every inch of spin at the track, the earth jolts
with the terror, accompanying them were ArmouredPersonal Carriers (APCs)
approaching the town just across the border, no less terror could be witnessed
when looking up in the skies where F-16 fighters are sweeping down bombing the
targets in the town. The depression that has enshrouded the town since the
launch of the offensive is a Gehenna from which the natives shall never be
released. This marked the entry of another regional military power in
agonizinglycomplex ever changing in already militarilysaturated Syrian-Civil
War.
Two weeks earlier, President Erdogan addressed the UN General Assembly in which
he unveiled the map of proposed Safe Zone which was marked with red line. The
Safe Zone is supposed to serve two-fold purposes of President Erdogan, who was
striving for playing a major role in the final solution of Syria. The first and
of the utmost importance was the rise of Kurdish Militia at the Turkish-Syrian
Border andmust be dealt with some social, political and economic issues as well.
Furthermore, President Erdogan’s popularity was at his worst since he gained
power. Erdogan has come a long way since he first took the office and curtailed
military’s ability to influence politics. After which he tried his best to put
some religious flavour in the secular Turkey. Finally, he struckwith iron hand
at the political and social elements with the potential of threating his rule
and secured the position of strong man of Turkey.However, this status came at a
cost. it was the only adjunct to attack Syria so that his popularity graph may
trot up. He had already lost local elections andwas depleted from major cities.
Economic situation was hardly satisfactory. His move against the Kurds would
divert the attention from all the domestic issues, for the Kurdish problem is
considered very sensitive in Turkey. Turkey desiderated to change the demography
of the Kurdish region in Syria by settling non Kurdish Arab refugees on the
Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian Border. Turkey was ready for the Kurdish
ethnic cleansing as some analysts pronounced them so. Turkey is asking for $10
billion to settle the Arab refugees at the Kurdish areas bordering Turkey. This
amount may serve many folds for Turkey. It would not only upheave the Turkish
economy, but shall also abet Turkey from taking control of its southern border.
It is the third Turkish military incursion into Syrian territory. Erdogan was
pursuing this opportunity since last December, when President Trump suddenly
announced his intentions to withdraw the ground troops; President Erdogan
planned an offensive within the Syrian territory. Turkey had been in talks with
the US to remove the PKK group and its Syrian affiliate, the People's Protection
Units (YPG), from northeastern Syria and establish a safe zone where Syrian
refugees may be securely rehabilitated. During this period, the United States
had to take concrete steps toward creating a safe zone, removing terrorists from
the area and overseeing the destruction of fortifications, as well as conduct
joint patrols with Turkey and set up checkpoints. In spite, US was unable, to
some degree, complied with the timeline, joint air and land patrols and the
destruction of some of the Kurds fortifications were dismantled by the SDF in
Talabyad and Rasul Ain. Yet Turks were unhappy because the agreement had not
been fully implemented: US officials refused to distance them from the YPG.
Turkey thinks that the US had failed to meet their expectations. Therefore, they
took unilateral steps in the area east of the Euphrates. Turkey was also
expecting from European Union that they would support its plan. However, in a
meeting with the interior ministers of Germany and France, the Turkish interior
minister stressed that Turkey cannot admit any more refugees and EU’s failure to
support the safe zone plan would result in an escalation of the migration crisis
in Europe.
On 6thOctober, Trump ordered withdrawal of US troops from the part of
Syrian-Turkish border after telephonic talk withErdogan. This move was a
surprise not only for SDF, Syrian government, Russians, US Congress but also for
the decision makers of the State Department at Pentagon. This order serves as a
green light for Turkey to move in.
On October 9, Turkey moved in and announced thelaunch of operation ‘Peace
Spring’ with the aim of capturing the towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, thus
stipulates the withdrawal of YPG from nearly all remaining areas of the border
up to a depth of 32 km.
Kurds are scattered in the region. There is no exact figure about the Kurdish
population as none of the countries that house Kurdish people have done an
ethnic census. Estimates vary between $20 to 40 million. The most credible
estimates number 15 million in Turkey and 7-8 million in Iran. In Iraq,semi-autonomous
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) evaluates the number of inhabitants to
5.3 million. There would be 1-2 million Kurds in Syria. In northeastern Syria
Kurds were concentrated into two pockets. Kurds came to prominence after ISIS
began to expand its territory in Kurdish populated area. There was no regional
force on ground which can challenge ISIS. Kurds were never the part of Syrian
Civil War up until, the ISIS began proliferating its control over Kurdish
populated area. Battle of Kobne proved to be a turning point when Kurds pushed
ISIS backed with the help of US led air operations. Thus, the west found a
parallel for ISIS in the shape of YPG (Kurdish Militia) despite Turkish frantic
protest. Then onwards coordination and cooperation between US and YGP began to
improve in Syria as well as in Iraq. Gradually the Kurdish Militia was name as
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to try to make it acceptable for Turkey. With
almost 2000 US troops on ground and immense air power coupled with growingly
skilled Kurdish forces ISIS was deprived of its land holding in Syria and
victory was declared in Syria.
President Trump ordered of withdrawal of US troops from Syria-Turkish border not
only seen as a go-ahead for turkey to move in, it created an opportunity for
President Putin to register himself as the main power broker in the region. When
US allies in the region the Saudi’s and Israelis were absorbing the shock of
Trump move Putin was already in the midst of dialogue with Turkey and the SDF.
SDF reached an agreement with Assad brooked by Russian according towhich Syrian
Arab Army moved into previously SDF held areas for the first time since
2012.Putin signed a separate agreement with Erdogan in Sochi. According to this
agreement the area betweenTel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, 120 km in length and 32 km
wide, was declared as a safe zone as desired byErdogan. Russia manages to
persuade SDF to clear the area; the rest of the border was supposed to be
patrolled by Turkish and Russian military. As a result of all this the greatest
winner is President Assad along with Russia to whom many of the regional powers
are looking up to as the most reliable superpower. Moreover, neither of the main
players as in the war is pleased as the Kurds grew stronger and their influence
increased. Especially Iran, against which YPG was an instrument in the hands of
Israel and the US. Assad regime is never willing to accept the Kurdish authority
to the extent where Kurds announced autonomous or semi-autonomous Kurd rule.
Russians see Kurds as another complicated problem which they have to solve for
Assad as they are main backers of the regime.
President Erdogan is increasingly finding himself walking on a delicate path.
Turkey is very important NATO member whose 60% of military hardware is of US and
Western Europe. In last few years Erdogan has developed friendly relations with
Putin’s Russia, culminating in procurement of S-400 air defense systems and
negotiations are underway for the transfer of technology of S-400 and purchase
of SU-35 fighter jets. It’s difficult to imagine how Turkeywill manage to
balance between NATO and Russia.
Has this Turkish aggression served anyone? For how long will Turkey sustain its
position of occupation of Syrian territory? Would this safe zone serve the
foreign policy of Turkey? It might appear a win-win situation for Turkey, but
history reiterates differently for the fore mentioned questions. It might look
pleasing for Turkish nation but the tensile strength may not act as strong as it
appears as it may break soon looking at the economic condition of Turkey. It has
never served internationally; the Bosnian Safe Zone, Rwanda Safe zones, massacre
of Houthis, Sri Lankan bombardment of Tamils. The world is witness to it: that
these aggressions have never worked as it is never being brutal. (ENDS)