US- Iran at loggerheads
In May 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal—also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Shortly thereafter, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a new U.S. strategy toward Iran: the “maximum pressure” campaign. Going far beyond the scope of the JCPOA, Pompeo articulated 12 demands, including that Iran end its nuclear weapons and advanced ballistic missile programs, release hostages, stop supporting terrorism and put a stop to its destabilizing activities across the Middle East.
Under circumstances, it is still unclear whether maximum pressure should be understood as a means of getting Iran back to the negotiating table. On a recent news conference in Japan, Trump indicated a willingness to return to negotiations, saying, “I really believe that Iran would like to make a deal.” Meanwhile, Pompeo routinely states that the ultimate goal is to get Iran to behave “like a normal nation,” making the 12 demands seem more like an end in and of themselves. Speaking at a press conference in Switzerland on June 2, Pompeo said the U.S. was open to talks even though “the American effort to fundamentally reverse the malign activity of this Islamic Republic, this revolutionary force, is going to continue.”
The Trump administration has mainly used four types of pressure to put its maximum pressure campaign into action: economic sanctions; designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO); diplomatic efforts; and, more recently, the deployment of military assets.
Lets us go into details of the “maximum pressure campaign”.
Firstly, through economic sanctions, United States of America want to bring Iran’s economy to a dead end. Accordingly, Iran’s oil export will face a gigantic decrease equal to zero level. Congressional Republicans have also been highly vocal about the need to get to “zero” exports as soon as possible.
To date, the administration estimates that sanctions have led to a $10 billion loss in Iranian oil sales. Some observers estimate that Iranian oil exports could drop to 300,000 barrels/day this summer
Similarly, the U.S. has imposed additional sanctions on Tehran on a vast network of individuals and companies. In late March, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 25 individuals and entities, including a network of front companies from Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey; Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAF); and the Iran-based Ansar Bank. The U.S. also announced additional sanctions on Iran’s steel, aluminum, iron and copper sectors—which account for an estimated 10 percent of Iran’s exports—making them the largest source of state revenue after oil.
Secondly, Foreign Terrorist Organization Designation is the second tool of the “Maximum pressure campaign”.On April 8, the Trump administration formally designated the IRGC, including its external special operations arm the Quds Force, as an FTO.It is important to note that Bolton and Mike Pompeo were reportedly strong proponents of the FTO designation, while top Pentagon officials, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford, reportedly cautioned that it could spark greater backlash against U.S. forces in the region. The New York Times reported that State Department officials asked Pompeo to delay the designation on the theory that it would have unintended consequences on other foreign partners.
In response to the designation, however, Iran designated the U.S. Central Command as a terrorist organization under its own domestic laws.
Decrying the U.S. move as an “unprecedented, unlawful and dangerous designation” in a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the designation of Central Command was a retaliatory decision and “shall not be construed as a shift in Iran’s legal position with regard to the principle of sovereign equality of states, and the definition of terrorism.”
Thirdly, Diplomatic Efforts is the third weapons of the “maximum pressure campaign” for cuttings the wings of Iran’s diplomatic journey. It is a stark reality that US is restive to put maximum pressure on the diplomatic side but U.S. has faced resistance from Europe in building a global coalition to counter Iran. In particular, Europe has been highly critical of the U.S. decision to reimpose sanctions lifted as part of the JCPOA. The EU-3 which includes- Germany, U.K. and France announced the creation of a special purpose vehicle (SPV) in late January to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Iran, but many core details have yet to be established.
Frustrated by Europe’s delay in establishing the SPV, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently announced that Iran was contemplating a financial channel with Russia and China, which would bypass U.S. sanctions.
In the meantime, Iran has been trying to expand its private clearinghouse for the sale of oil, through which local buyers purchase oil on behalf of foreign clients. The Wall Street Journal reports that the exchange sold one million barrels in the past month.
The U.S. hosted a February 2019 summit in Poland aimed at building a global coalition against Iran. But the conference was widely panned when many European countries failed to send senior representation to the conference.
At the annual Munich Security Conference, Vice President Mike Pence called on the Europeans to withdraw from the agreement. Responding to Pence, Angela Merkel criticized U.S. thinking on Iran, arguing that the Iran deal could have helped pressure Iran on other issues. She went on to say that the U.S. withdrawal from Syria had emboldened Russia and Iran in the region. Also at the event, Zarif said that Iranians were losing faith in the Iran deal and that Europe needed to be ready to “get wet if it wants to swim against the dangerous tide of U.S. unilateralism.”
No doubt, U.S. and Europe have found common ground on Iran’s ballistic missile program. In early April, foreign ministers from leading industrial nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.—issued a joint communique that acknowledges their concern about Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region, drawing particular attention to Iran’s ballistic missiles. The communique calls on Iran to “implement all relevant UNSCRs [U.N. Security Council resolutions], and to prevent all forms of direct or indirect proliferation of ballistic expertise, drones and missile capabilities.” At the U.N. Security Council meeting in December 2018, Britain’s ambassador, Karen Pierce, said that Iran cannot “expect to improve its relations with the rest of the world or ensure its economic prosperity and security while pursuing its current path.”
Furthermore, Europe has recently introduced its own punitive measures against Iran related to Iran’s terrorism activities. Catalyzed by alleged Iranian-backed assassination attempts in Paris and Copenhagen, Europe imposed new sanctions in January targeting an Iranian intelligence unit and two of its agents, including Deputy Minister and Director General of Intelligence Saeid Hashemi Moghadam. Shortly thereafter, the Netherlands recalled its Iranian ambassador, alleging that Iran also orchestrated the political assassination of two Dutch nationals, which Iran has denied. More recently, Britain designated Iranian-backed Hezbollah as a terrorist organization—having previously designated only its military, but not political wing, in 2008. Speaking at the U.N. Security Council on March 12, Europe’s High Representative Federica Mogherini said that Europe has “serious issues with Iran’s behavior on other matters, starting with ballistic missiles, with human rights and with regional dynamics.” France similarly told Iran that European efforts to preserve the JCPOA did not give Iran a “blank check” to violate the human rights of its citizens.”
Last but not the least, “Deployment of Military Assets” is the mainstay of curbing the Iranian hegemony in the region. Accordingly, in May 2019, Bolton announced that in “response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” the U.S. would deploy “USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the U.S. Central Command region.” While the U.S. is “not seeking war with the Iranian regime,” he said, it is “fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces.”
Commander of U.S. Central Command Marine Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. reportedly requested the USS Abraham Lincoln be relocated upon receiving new intelligence of Iran’s “escalatory indications.” It’s not entirely clear what McKenzie was referring to, but the New York Times reported on May 6 that Pentagon officials had intelligence that Iran or Iranian proxies were preparing to attack American troops in Iraq and Syria.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that officials believed Iran had developed plans to target U.S. forces in Iraq and possibly Syria, to launch an attack in the Bab el-Mandeb strait near Yemen, and to launch an attack in the Persian Gulf with its own armed drones.
Most importantly, When the Trump administration presented evidence of the purported Iranian threat to Congress, the reactions split largely along partisan lines, with Republicans agreeing that it demonstrates a credible threat and Democrats, as the Washington Post reported, insisting that “none of the information showed Iran was appreciably more of a threat now than in the past.” Meanwhile, European leaders have expressed doubt about an increased threat from Iran. British Maj. Gen. Christopher Ghika, the number-two officer in the anti-Islamic State coalition, has stated that there is “no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces” in the region.
More recently, on May 15, the U.S. withdrew all nonemergency government staff from Iraq in response to the alleged increased threat. About a week later, Trump announced that he had ordered an additional 1,500 troops to the Gulf region for a “mostly protective” purpose, though the Pentagon added later that day that the troops would not be deployed to Iraq or Syria. Bloomberg recently reported that 600 of the 1,500 troops referenced in Trump’s announcement were already in the region at the time of the announcement.
To sum-up, the Iranian economy is suffering as a result of maximum pressure: The Financial Times reports that in 2018, the economy shrank by 4 percent; the rial, Iran’s national currency, has lost more than 60 percent of its value; inflation has soared from single digits to just below 50 percent; and food prices have jumped 85 percent.
Realistically speaking, America’s maximum pressure campaign has certainly succeeded in straining Iran’s economy and undercutting European efforts to preserve the JCPOA. Still, it has failed to curb Iran’s ballistic program, spur the release of American detainees or end Iran’s support for proxy groups in the region. Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are running hot.