The fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 15 was long overdue. As expected, they made it a peaceful takeover by avoiding bloodshed, giving a safe exit to all the people wanting to flee Afghanistan–including President Ashraf Ghani, Afghan spies, families and supporters of invaders and foreign diplomats. It was a historic moment that registered victory of the Taliban fighters who remained steadfast in the face of interference by a self-styled super power and more than 30 allied countries for the past 20 years. This is the second greatest victory for the Taliban who defeated the former Soviet Union after fighting it for more than 9 years. However, this time around, the Taliban are showing more political maturity, magnanimity, better internal organisation, enhanced stature and the support of regional states like China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, CARS and many more.
In the last two years, based on my first hand experience, I have written extensively about Afghanistan and the US policies with strategic recommendations to all concerned; thankfully Government of Pakistan paid heed to it, whereas US and her allies and Afghan puppet government kept getting misled by their self-created academic advisers, tunnel vision think tanks and foolhardy intelligence wizards.
Ironically many Western embedded writers in Pakistan and elsewhere still continue to churn out naïve narratives and misleading data that, in the first place, became the raison d’être for US’ greatest politico-military failure. Once bitten twice shy, Pakistan and other like minded countries need to be extremely careful in separating the wheat from the chaff as battles of false narratives will precede and multiply as a main tool of sowing the seeds of suspicions, discord and mischief.
While American President Joe Biden is being criticised by his unenviable predecessor Trump for the outcome in Afghanistan, if heprevails then his name would go down in American history as a wise ruler. It is also the time the American administration to introspect about their consistent failure to correctly see the bigger picture, failed policies and strategies in the last 70 years as the international community, including the NATO allies, see the US on a downward slope due unrelenting blunders. In regards to the prospects of resetting Pak-US relations, Biden will have to ensure that he is not led into initiating equally costly and destabilising covert war in Afghanistan and elsewhere or get embroiled in yet another Cold War in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Indian media has nevertheless gone berserk with frenzied whimpers on the social media as all Indian ambitions and conspiracies in Afghanistan and Central Asia have been stated. India’s 20 year investment in Afghanistan to pose a multi-dimensional and two-front war against Pakistan stands quashed and her proxies are running out like scared rats. India stands exposed and embarrassed as it has shown its false image in the region as a strategic partner of America that could never step over Pakistan and deliver against China. Nevertheless, Pakistan will have to ensure that the PTM, BLA and approximately 15,000 terrorists and saboteurs operating from Afghanistan as Indian trained and funded proxy meet their natural end right there with no mercy for their political handlers inside Pakistan. A lot of emotional symbolism is being attached to the date of the Taliban’s victory.
While it is moment of great pride, those in Afghanistan must never forget the extreme endurance shown by Pakistan in hosting millions of Afghan refugees for over 40 long years. Outside of this, Pakistan has been taking various kinds of blames, accusations, pressures and multi-dimensional international coercion under the accusation of supporting the Taliban. Besides, acknowledgements are due for Pakistan’s key role to make the Taliban sit on the dialogue table with the USA in February 2020–an opportunity deliberately missed by cowardly runaway Ashraf Ghani who continued to spit out RAW-NDS mixed venom until disgracefully boarding out plane for his eventual hideout with his sponsors.
Moreover, Pakistan’s continued efforts, which paved the way for peace returning to Afghanistan need to be appreciated by the people of Afghanistan, the Taliban, the USA, regional and extra regional countries and all other stakeholders in Afghanistan. The people of Pakistan in particular should also thank Almighty Allah and greatly appreciate the Armed Forces as well as all law enforcement and national intelligence agencies who successfully defeated all nefarious designs to shift the war on Pakistani soil. It is a hard earned victory against global terrorism that was unleashed on Pakistan at a great social, economic and human cost. The immense sacrifices rendered by the people and Armed forces must be remembered with reverence in all times to come.
As highlighted earlier in a number of previous columns and analyses papers, while the peace process will take time to settle in Afghanistan, Pakistan must not suffer from complacency on any front. Pakistan has to brace up for a host of diplomatic, political, economic and military eventualities without any waste of time. The pitfalls of a potential civil war or at least political mayhem cannot be brushed aside. The war of narratives is already in motion to further malign Pakistan, attempts to bolster proxies within Afghanistan to create geographic or ethnic division, heightened covert war inside Pakistan to exacerbate the law and order situation in the urban centers, efforts to generate political chaos by the anvil corrupt political elite, flux of refugees, efforts to create animosity amongst Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and other Muslim states, targeting BRI and CPEC projects, instigating ETIM against China are some of the important aspects that need detailed preparations and timely firm response. China in coordination with Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Central Asian Republics will have to take the lead role in handling the Afghan situation being the strategic competitor of the USA. It goes without saying that the Taliban will need a lot of political, diplomatic and economic support from regional countries as well as the larger international community to bring around an inclusive political dispensation for long term stability in their war ravaged country. Meanwhile, Pakistan needs to keep international borders with Afghanistan sealed and effectively monitored to avoid a repeat of history, besides maintaining high internal security along the Eastern front.