Pakistan Afghanistan Relations: Opportunities, Expectations and threats
Dr. Syed Mehboob
Pakistan and Afghanistan have immense opportunities to increase their trade and to enhance their economic relations. After the fall of Ashraf Ghani regime and emergence of Taliban a new era has been started. Taliban has learned a lot from past and presented themselves as tolerate and set the example of conquest of Makkah and announced general amnesty for their opponents which is a new phenomenon for Afghan society. Taliban want Islamic Sharia System in Afghanistan and if they keep before them example of Riyasat e Madina they might be successful in creating a new and quite different impression which was created by American, Western and Indian Media against them. Since Indian influence in Afghanistan is decreased and anti- Pakistan elements are weakened therefore there is a great chance for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to cooperate with each other and try to establish durable peace in Afghanistan which is vital for the interest of whole region. When Kabul Airport was handed over to Taliban they offered gratitude prayer there and bowed down their heads before Allah Almighty. This was a very impressive scene and reminds the conquest of Makkah.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country at the crossroads of Central and South Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the east and south, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to the north, and Tajikistan and China to the northeast. Having area of 652,864 square kilometers and a population of 31.4 million its geopolitical and geographical location is highly important. All the superpowers of the world wished to control it but failed. Its population has the dominant of Muslims who are 99.7 % of all the total population. It is a multi-ethnic country having 42 % Pashtuns, 27 % Tajik, 9% Hazara, 9 % Uzbek, 4 % Aimaq, 3% Turkmen, 2% Balouch and 4 % others. The capital of Afghanistan is Kabul. Afghanistan proved itself the toughest resistance against colonialism and has been called,” unconquerable” and nocked named as “the graveyard of superpowers”.
Economy of Afghanistan
GDP ( PPP) : US$ 78.8 billion
Per capita : US$ 2,24
GDP ( Nominal ) : $ 21.657 billion
GDP per capita : $ 493
Afghanistan is rich in mineral and natural resources and it is estimated that about $ 1000 dollars’ worth mineral resources are there.
Sector % Of GDP
Agriculture 23
Industry 21.1
Services 55.9
currency
75 Afghani = 1 USD
Michal E O Hanlon of Brookings Institute estimated that if Afghanistan generates about US$ 10 billion per year from its mineral deposits its GDP could be double. The United States Geological Survey estimated that Northern Afghanistan has an average 2.9 billion barrels of crude oil , 15.7 trillion cubic feet natural gas, 562 million liquid gas, In 2011 Afghanistan signed an oil exploration contract with National Petroleum Corporation for development of three oilfields along with river Amu.The country has significant amount of Lithium , copper, gold, coal, iron ore and other minerals. The Khanashin carbonatite in Helmand province . One million tonnes of rare earth elements are there. Pentagon Memo stated that Afghanistan could be the Saudi Arabia of Lithium.
There is a need to do serious efforts to eradicate illiteracy and poverty in Afghanistan as more than 50% of Afghanistan’s population lives below poverty line.
Exports : US$ 776 million
Export items: fruits, nuts , Afghanistan rugs, wool, cotton, hides,
gemstones, medical herbs
Export partners
Country % of Total Exports
UAE 44.8
Pakistan 24.3
India 21.6
USA 1.60
China 1.3
Turkey 1.18
Imports : US$ 6.56 billion
Import Items: machinery, fuel, textile,
Import Partners
Country % of Total imports
UAE 23.4
Pakistan 17.1
India 12.1
China 8.68
USA 8.61
Uzbekistan 6.58
Kazakhstan 5.77
Turkey 2.55
Russia 1.69
Afghanistan produces 3.6 million of wheat, 984 thousand tons of grapes, 615 thousand of potatoes 217 thousand tons of Apples.
Pakistan Afghanistan Trade statistics
Million USD
Year Exports Imports Total
trade Balance
Of trade Total
Exports
Of Pak$ bn % in total exports Total imports of Pak $bn % in total imports
2015 1,722.2 390.4 2,112.6 1,331.8 22.689 7.8 43.98 0.9
216 1,369.8 369.9 1,739.7 999.9 20.53 6.7 46.99 0.8
2017 1,392.2 415.4 1,817.07 976.8 21.91 6.4 57.52 0.7
2018 1,356.4 510.3 1,866.6 846.1 23.78 5.7 60.39 0.8
2019 1,183.6 580.5 1,764.1 603.1 23.818 5.6 50.51 1.1
2020 871.5 518 1,389.5 353.5 21.99 4.8 45.89 1.1
Source: TDAP, PBS
Pakistan, China, Russia and other Islamic countries should move forward to stabilize Afghanistan and support its government to maintain peace. It is in the larger interest of the region. It is also the duty of USA to support Afghanistan and not to impose its will. A strong and peaceful Afghanistan is also in the interest of United State and West. Any effort destabilizing Afghanistan would be counter-productive and its effects would be disastrous.