Although India’s borders are
not contiguous to Afghanistan, it has always vied to maintain friendly ties with
Afghanistan and to keep Pak-Afghan relations frosty. To India, ties with Kabul
mean new trade routes, access to Central Asia’s vast energy reserves and a way
to stave off the rise of Islamic militancy. It gives an opportunity to India to
undermine Pakistan, as it nurtures its super power aspirations by expanding its
regional influence. According to informed sources, Indian intelligence officials
working in Afghanistan disguised as diplomats have a vast network to destabilize
FATA and Baluchistan. Besides the Indian Embassy in Kabul, India have consulates
in Kandahar, Jalalabad, Mazar-e-Sharif and Herat. India also opened 70 training
camps all along Pakistan’s western border where Tajiks, Uzbeks, Chechans, Arabs
and dissidents from FATA and Baluchistan are funded, trained, equipped and
launched into selected regions of Pakistan. Bulk of RAW assets is deployed in
Afghanistan.
India is the 5th highest donor in Afghanistan and has invested $2 billion in
Afghanistan for various development works and has built highways in the western
deserts of landlocked Afghanistan dependent upon Pakistan for exporting and
importing its goods. India built Delaram-Zaranj Highway so as to bring
Afghanistan-Iran into an economic and strategic alliance and to isolate
Pakistan. India invested $100 million in building Chahbahar Port and after Iran
built a road to connect the port to Afghan border, India connected it with
Delaram-Zaranj Highway. India has also invested over $136 million in
construction of Ring Road Highway in Helmand province that will connect
Chahbahar with Kabul. Work is underway to link Chahbahar by railway line with
Hajipak in Afghanistan. The envisaged road/rail connectivity will allow
landlocked Afghanistan an alternative outlet and thus reduce Afghanistan’s
dependence on Pakistan and reduce latter’s leverage over former. Like USA and
China, India too is desperately seeking access to energy rich Central Asia and
Caspian Sea region and hence has larger stakes in Chahbahar-Kabul connectivity.
Other important project of India is laying of transmission lines providing Uzbek
electricity to Kabul. In addition, hydroelectric Salma Dam and new parliament
building in Kabul are also significant Indian projects. India is also helping in
agriculture and mining. More than hundred Afghan owned small development
projects are being implemented by India. It offers free medical care and
medicines in clinics across the country. Its medical missions in Kabul,
Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif provided free treatment for
350,000 Afghans in 2009-10. In the field of education, India provides 2000
scholarships to Afghans annually for schooling and training in Indian
institutions. It has provided teachers and professors in English and other
languages for Afghan educational institutions.
On October 4, 2011, New Delhi and Kabul signed an agreement on strategic
partnership which has further cemented their relations. Besides imparting
training to the Afghan police and other administrative organizations, RAW
rejuvenated KHAD and renamed it as RAAM and also helped in setting up Central
Directorate of Intelligence. Indian military has now been assigned to train ANA
as well. India is assiduously working to win the hearts and the minds of the
Afghans. Indian influence in Afghanistan increased so profusely that the former
sacked NATO-ISAF Commander Gen McChrystal blurted out bluntly that “While Indian
activities largely benefit the Afghan people; increasing Indian influence in
Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani
countermeasures”. His straight talk may have become one of the reasons of his
sudden ouster.
India has invested huge amount and undertaken multiple development projects in
Afghanistan to create pro-India sentiments among the Afghan youth and to build
anti-Pakistan sentiments. India is now looking forward for
socio-politico-military-economic returns. It is greedily eying at Afghanistan’s
vast reserves of iron, copper, cobalt and gold and Indian companies have already
been invited by Kabul to tap one trillion dollars worth of minerals.
India remains haunted with the memory of five-year Taliban rule in Afghanistan
during which Indian presence in that country had almost terminated and
Islamabad-Kabul relations were at their best. Since mid nineties, India pursued
anti-Taliban and pro-Northern Alliance (NA) policy. The NA leaders were treated
as state guests whenever they visited India and were well entertained and their
needs were met. The Indian military with the blessing of Iran provided military
hardware, repair of Soviet built Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters and training
facilities to NA soldiers to battle the Taliban. India’s military provided
intimate guidance and support to NA forces when they launched attacks in October
2001. Indian lobbyists in USA convinced George W. Bush administration to
marginalize the Afghan Pashtuns from all government departments including
security forces and to bring non-Pashtuns on the centre stage. This action was
necessary to enable India to rapidly gain influence in all the sections of the
Afghan society.
The NA members are beholden to India for its invaluable support it had lent to
their cause when they were out in the blue. President Hamid Karzai who had
received his education in India has never missed an opportunity to praise India
and to demonize Pakistan. The present arrangement therefore suits India the
most. Under no circumstances India would like these happy tidings to end and
anti-India Taliban to return to power.
India has not confined its activities to Afghanistan only but is also busy
making inroads in Central Asian Republics (CARs) and has made appreciable
progress. Indian military is interacting with Tajikistan security forces and is
providing funding for upgrading of airbases and has constructed a military
hospital and logistic depot. India inked an agreement with Tajikistan in 2007
enabling its IAF to establish itself at Ayani airbase near Dushanbe and Farkhor
airbase close to northern Afghanistan border. It has parked Mi-17 attack
helicopters at Ayani base and has also leased Russian jets, already stationed at
the base. It has a squadron of MiG 31 jet fighter bombers at Farkhor base. The
two airbases have given an option to IAF to strike Pakistan from the rear.
India’s biggest worry is the post 2014 scenario. It knows that Karzai is
unpopular even within his own clan and the ANSF is still not operationally fit
enough to confront the Taliban challenge at its own. India is also unhappy over
US parleys with the hard-line Taliban and its efforts to induce them to share
power. In concert with Israel and hawkish elements within USA opposed to the
draw-down plan, India has been making hectic efforts to dissuade Obama
administration to call off the exit plan and stay on till Karzai achieves
complete stability and control over the country. It has been inculcating fears
into the minds of the policy makers in Washington that early withdrawal would
open the way for extremist Taliban to regain power and Pakistan to recover its
influence in Afghanistan. It has been propagating about the possibility of
Russia-China, Afghanistan under Taliban-Pakistan-Iran-some Central Asian States
block coming into being, with drastic ramifications for US strategic and
economic interests in the region. Likewise, it is hobnobbing with Russia, Iran,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for a possible grouping in case an
anti-Indian regime comes to power in Kabul. It is owing to Indo-Israel efforts
that the draw-down plan has been modified and it has been decided in principle
to leave behind a size-able counter terrorism force under the garb of advisers
and trainers and to retain five military bases till 2024.
Pakistan must not agree to the US suggestion of granting prime role to India in
Afghanistan and should parry US pressure and coercive diplomacy. Pakistan
through skillful diplomacy should stay relevant in the endgame by retaining its
links with friendly Taliban and other Afghan groups. It is in the interest of
Pakistan to seek timely withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Pakistan
can assert only if its home front is united and institutions are mutually
supporting.
Asif Haroon Raja
Retired Brig, a historian, a columnist and a defence analyst.
Email: [email protected]