Despite Obama’s desperation to
declare victory in Afghanistan, triumph is not in sight. The US is now striving
to end the war in Afghanistan in a manner that its honor doesn’t get bruised. It
wants the world to believe that its troops are abandoning Afghanistan of their
own accord after achieving most objectives. While all the power centers in USA
undoubtedly want to end the war on a winning note and are on one page on this
count, differences have cropped up between Pentagon-CIA and White House-State
Department over the culmination of endgame. The former wants continuation of use
of brute force padded up with intrigue and trickery to gain an edge over
Taliban, the latter seeks political settlement with Taliban so that troops could
return honorably. So far, efforts to make the Taliban agree to hold talks have
failed.
The US military’s false claim of gains made against Taliban got a jolt after the
big jailbreak in Kandahar in April 2011. Most of jail breakers were Taliban
commanders and it was feared that they would give fillip to raids and ambushes
during this summer. As predicted, from May onwards the Taliban accelerated their
attacks on US-NATO targets as well as against key Afghan personalities engaged
in brokering peace at the behest of USA and Karzai. Cases of ANA soldiers
killing ISAF soldiers as well as desertions increased, while casualties owing to
IEDs mounted. Figure of soldiers suffering from mental diseases also increased
sharply. On June 28, 2011, Taliban suicide bombers and gunmen attacked a hotel
in Kabul. Half-brother of President Karzai, Ahmad Wali Karzai was killed in
Kandahar in June. Bigger disasters befell upon ISAF in August and September 2011
during which high profile attacks were carried out by the Taliban
On August 19, 2011, suicide blast and gun attack occurred at British Council in
Kabul. Suicide attack on NATO base in Wardak seriously injured 77 US troops many
of whom succumbed to injuries later on. The US helicopter was shot down by the
Taliban near Wardak in August killing 38 US troops including 23 NAVY SEALs
soldiers who had taken part in ‘Get Geronimo’ operation in Abbottabad on 2 May.
On September 13, the US Embassy, NATO Command HQ and Afghan Central Directorate
of Security building were attacked by six Taliban with rocket grenades and
machine guns from a nearby building in Kabul and the siege continued for 20
hours. The attackers managed to make good their escape. On 20 September,
Chairman Peace Council Burhanuddin Rabbani was killed by a suicide bomber at his
home in Kabul. These attacks flabbergasted the US military NATO and ANSF. These
occurred at a critical time when military command was changing/had just changed,
less volatile regions were being handed over to ANA, the drawdown had just begun
and the US military was making tall claims of progress.
The US spelt out three conditions for peace. These were dropping of arms and
sitting on negotiating table, detaching from al-Qaeda, and acceptance of
constitution framed by Afghan Parliament. The US also expressed its desire that
after withdrawing bulk of forces by end 2014, it may continue occupying five
military bases for next ten years till complete stability was achieved.
The Taliban rejected all the demands and stuck to their stated position of
withdrawal of all occupying forces without condition and leaving the Afghans to
sort out matters among themselves. This stance was unacceptable to USA and hence
application of force continued to force the Taliban to come to the negotiating
table. Use of kill teams and night raids and induction of tanks in southern
Afghanistan were undertaken to weaken Taliban and wrest the initiative from
them. US air attacks were also stepped up in 2011 as was seen in rise of
civilian casualties in Helmand, Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan. As
per reports of James Cogan, Human Rights Unit of UN assistance to Afghanistan (UNAMA),
upsurge in reckless US-NATO aerial attacks soared civilian casualties in
Afghanistan by 24% since 2010.
Pakistan which is an important stakeholder has so far not spelled out its role
in the endgame although it is often heard that it desires to have a friendly
regime in Kabul since it cannot afford to have two hostile fronts in east and
west. It is also believed that Pakistan is not in agreement with the policy of
pre-conditions and wants that composition of future broad based Afghan
government should be proportionate to ethnic demography.
Had the US or Afghan regime been on Pakistan’s side, it would have been much
easier for Islamabad to emphasize its position openly and assertively. Since
Indo-US-Afghan nexus has common goals and is jointly playing the endgame so as
to terminate it to its advantage and Pakistan doesn’t fit into the scheme of
things, it makes things that much difficult for Pakistan. Disagreeing with the
perception of Pakistan, the US wants the Taliban to be given role of a junior
partner in a coalition government so that it can leave behind a regime friendly
to USA and India and not so friendly to Pakistan.
The US admitted that Mullah Omar led Shura and Haqqani network (HN) were two
most important players who could not be ignored, and without their cooperation
no political settlement was possible. However, while it strove to hold parleys
with them, at the same time it desperately searched them to eliminate them since
without their cooperation or riddance; no headway could be made in Afghan
imbroglio. It was this inherent desire which impelled US leaders to provoke
Pakistan to fight them and earn their enmity rather than befriend them. Finding
that HN was unprepared to tow its agenda, it was declared a terrorist outfit.
Mullah Omar and HN are acceptable to USA only if they cede to its three
conditions and not otherwise. While Karzai regime, Afghan Peace Council now
under Salahuddin Rabbani, moderate Taliban, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Britain,
Germany and India are authorized to contact the Taliban, Pakistan is the only
country which is debarred. This is despite the fact that out of all the
countries claiming to have some access to Taliban, Pakistan is in a far better
position to negotiate with them. The reason why Pakistan is being kept out is
that the US doesn’t want Pakistan to develop camaraderie with Taliban or to play
a role in political settlement. The US wants Pak Army to hunt, weaken and
isolate HN and elements of Mullah Omar, leaving them with no option but to come
to terms with the US. One wonders what would be fate of US-NATO forces stuck in
the quagmire of Afghanistan if the lone door that has been kept open by Pakistan
is also closed and security situation spins out of control.
Irrespective of concerted efforts of US trainers to make the ANA battle worthy,
performance of ANA is still not up to the mark. There has not been any drop in
desertion and discipline cases including cases of firing upon foreign forces
mainly because of their meager pay scale, economic hardships and insulting
attitude of US-NATO officers and men. Indiscriminate firing by NATO resulting in
heavy deaths of civilians’ is another cause of their heart burning. Possibility
of revolt within ANA cannot be ruled out particularly when larger numbers of
Pashtun soldiers are now being recruited to correct the ethnic balance. Surge in
green-on-blue attacks is an indication in that direction.
While the Americans do not foresee any possibility of recovering southern and
eastern Afghanistan, they still feel that central, northern and possibly western
Afghanistan can be retained since the influence of Taliban in these regions is
so far not as strong as in Pashtun dominated regions of Afghanistan. In case the
Taliban do not come to terms as per US wishes, as a last resort the US intends
giving up the two regions dominated by Taliban and consolidate their power base
in the north. The other way is to shift responsibility of US failure to Pakistan
and to realize its long desired plan to defang Pakistan’s nuclear capability.
The two contingencies will be played by retaining 10,000 US Special forces
disguised as trainers and technical advisers in five military bases in
Afghanistan till 2024.
As long as foreign troops will remain in Afghanistan, both Afghanistan and
Pakistan will keep bleeding. Tragedy is that even after departure of bulk of
occupying forces by December 2014, probability of recurrence of civil war in
Afghanistan with its spillover effect on Pakistan is quite high. All those who
had taken part in destroying Afghanistan would go back to their respective
countries but Pakistan alone will have to face the residual impact of 13 year
war for times to come.
Pakistan-Afghanistan will keep bleeding
Asif Haroon Raja
The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst. Email: [email protected]