It was November 24, when Iran
dispute suddenly moved to inactive state by successful negotiation, dialogue
process. Prior to deal, Iran issue was confronted as second important issue
after Afghan War in South Asian Political Paradigm. In worldly politics this
region always remained important and in current scenarios US, RUSSIA, INDIA,
PAKISTAN, IRAN, CHINA, and AFGHANISTAN are active members of this political
futsal. Afghan End Game and US interest will mold the future politics of region.
Why Iran deal exfoliated without hindrance is question that blocks further
imagination. Brain storming question I got Iran interest, US interest and time
factor to be fulcrum of deal.US have to withdraw from Afghanistan but for them
till here, historical ally Pakistan was 1st option to be kept with but ending
scene of Afghanistan war if it assigns great weightage for Pakistan will result
to a subsequent loss to US interest. For US efficient interest accomplishment
the role of neighboring countries must be splitted in such a way to involve
maximum stake holders but with less weightage criterion. Pakistan was enjoying
great influence on issue since Soviet war, and no doubt it is still epicenter
for solution, a bridge without which no further dialogues can be successfully
achieved. For US it is threat that can’t be called threat because of
Geo-strategic location and strong interest correlation with growing Power China.
Nato-Supply route from Pakistan joins northern Afghanistan via Torkham and
southern Afghanistan via Chaman is a factor that balances great weightage of
Pakistan in Issue. Know to reduce Pakistan Influence US must opt two options
firstly back up route that must be cost efficient and secure .Make Taliban
diminished and spread factor like Al-Qaeda ,step for which initiated from
killing of Hakeem Ulla Mehssod .Dividing Taliban into as much groups as possible
will be beneficial for America.
First factor NATO logistics can be solved by using CHA-BAHAR port of IRAN but
issue of security is currently not solved because Gulbuddin Hekmatyar supporter
have influence on one of spot route undergoes. But solving that will not be
rocket science for Americans. Iran had opened it for Americans as positive
gesture after deal. Second factor making Taliban diminished and divided US had
achieved a lot already and in my view near future will show twisting deals of
small afghan groups with US.
After discussing US interest submerged with Pakistan role what Iran got from all
this deal. Iran is celebrating deal and angry bird to East of Iran “Israel” is
expressing strong reservations on this deal. Iran got right to enrich Uranium
and sanctions ended .On Diplomatic level Iran have won dialogue by stating “Our
point of view was same earlier” .The worldly powers always pointed Iran can make
or lead to become a Nuclear Power, But never stated that with surety using word
‘is’ or ‘is going to be’. Iran needed economic improvement and sanctions to be
removed as early as possible, US wanted not to indulge in War, prefer peace and
have successful ending for Afghan End Game the timing played an important role
to bring Iran and US on close ties after a dark history of relationship.
Future scenario portrays Iran US close ties, Pakistan US relationship bond will
weaken as it weakens after Soviet defeat .Afghanistan may repeat its history of
Political instability. For Pakistan strengthening foreign policy is on work
after Nawaz Sharif visit to China. It is in interest of both countries to
strengthen it more for regional domination. Another positive opening for
Pakistan in foreign terms is continuation of Pak-Iran Gas Pipe line project and
to improve relationship with Iran. By doing so Pakistan will balance regional
importance even it loses its interest share in Afghanistan. Geopolitically
regions stability is somehow linked with intra stability of Afghanistan and
Inter stability among Afghanistan Pakistan and India Pakistan. Iran US closeness
will be beneficial for region stability.2014 Regional Political decisions will
pave a way for many future years. Let’s watch how it initiates and where it
leads.