Muslims may not vote for
BJP or Modi this time."The BJP is fundamentally an anti-Muslim party and Modi
proved that with his role in the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat, but they are
not going to be stampeded into voting for the so-called secular parties either.
They have abandoned fear and forsaken.
The Muslim electorate across India was widely disenchanted with Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) for unkept promises in its
nine-year rule. They were miffed as the UPA has failed to introduce reservations
for them in jobs and educational institutions, a pre-election promise. They were
also angered by the sudden hanging of Afzal Guru in February, a Kashmiri who had
been on death row for years after being convicted as a conspirator in the 2001
Parliament attack.
Muslim leaders have long slammed the Congress for what they see as its failure
to improve the Muslims' lot after a panel led by former Delhi High Court Chief
Justice Rajinder Sachar reported in 2006 that Muslims were one of India's most
neglected social groups in terms of education, employment, poverty and health.
Disappointment has also been rife among the Muslims at the refusal of the
Congress-led UPA to declare the Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), the premier
Muslim educational institution set up in the 19th century, a minority
institution as the Muslims have long demanded. "AMU had hoped Congress President
Sonia Gandhi would make the announcement in her telephonic address at the
university's last convocation,
Muslim leaders reckon the community's vote can make and unmake pretenders to
100-150 Lok Sabha seats. These seats are not to be confused with those that
Muslims win.
Today, there are only 30 Muslims in the Lok Sabha, just 5.5 percent of its 543
seats. As per the 2011 Census, Muslims are nearly 15 percent of India's 1.2
billion people. But although Muslims in the Lok Sabha are barely a third of
their share in the population, their arc of electoral influence is far greater.
In 35 seats, they number around one in three voters or more. In 50 other seats,
Muslims are 25.40 percent of the electorate. If the 150 seats where they are
11-24 percent are added to this, Muslim
voters have the ability to influence the outcome in a whopping 300 seats.
Muslims have shortlisted Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal as their key
battleground states because their results would most impact who leads the next
government: the Congress or the BJP. Next in importance for the Muslims are
Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra and Karnataka, where the more seats in the
kitty of the Congress the less likely would be the BJP's chances to form the
government. Indeed, the selection of the primary battleground states of Uttar
Pradesh and Bihar is based on their experience of coalition politics since 1998,
when the BJP formed its first stable national government heading a multi-party
coalition with Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister. The key to the BJP's
victories in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections lay in its wins in Uttar
Pradesh and Bihar. These back-to-back victories jolted the Muslims, who are
around 20 percent in these states' overall population.
On the other hand, wherever their numbers are 20 percent and above, Muslim votes
have mostly been ineffective because of a multiplicity of Muslim candidates
divvying up their support, often handing victory to the BJP on a platter. But
Muslims now is to stop the BJP and the Congress both from returning to power in
New Delhi at any cost.