Deliberate Coercion
Blowing the peace once again, in a condemnable demeanor, India brutally and
mischievously ravaged the regional calm by igniting fire on LoC and on a part of
Working Boundary. More of us do have the central idea behind the latest
escalation that pursued right after Kashmir took to the center stage across the
world. Either in UN General Assembly session where the issue once again raised
by PM Nawaz Sharif outraged India or the protest in Britain that not only
brought a sheer embarrassment to India but a strong message conveyed to the
international community that Kashmir no longer be held in the Indian occupation
against the will of its people.
Apparently it is now a widely held belief, peace on the Line of Control has
always been irrelevant for India. In 2011, when there wasn’t a cloud in the sky,
there were 61 incidents of firing from the Indian side of the border. There was
a similar number in the first 10 months of 2012. But the exchanges of fire in
October this year have been qualitatively different. Not only have these seen
the heaviest bombardments that villagers can remember, but most of it as usual,
has been by India. Hence the Pakistani forces couldn’t take an exception and
simply retaliate. In a single day, October 9, Indian forces fired more than
1,000 mortar shells into Azad Kashmir. This was preceded by a week of heavy
firing from both sides that, by Indian estimates, has killed 35 civilians in
Azad Kashmir and 20 in Indian held Kashmir, and forced thousands to flee from
their homes. India in these attacks has clearly been the aggressor but it must
realise that our deterrence will be credible as demonstrated by Pak Army. It
seems clearly that if it persists with this adventurism, our forces will make
the cost of this adventurism unaffordable like they did in 1965. Islamabad has
the ability to respond to Indian aggression, perceived as a veiled threat.
Moreover, Pakistan did not want the situation on the borders of two nuclear
neighbours to escalate into confrontation. Nevertheless, the response from the
Pakistani military must deter and restrict India from taking such provocative
actions next time, especially the killings of innocent civilians.
The current spate of aggression has been different for three reasons: First,
although it too may have started as a local exchange of fire, unlike the myriad
exchanges of yesteryear, it has not been allowed to remain local. Instead, in a
manner disturbingly similar to the way the 150-year-old local dispute over the
Babri Mosque in Faizabad was politicized by the BJP in the 1980s, the Modi
government has chosen to read a new aggressiveness in Nawaz Sharif’s government
for highlighting the Kashmir in an international arena of UN. Second, instead of
relying on diplomacy to straighten things out, the Modi government has
deliberately chosen coercion. Not only has India’s ignition to firing been
disproportionate, but the Modi government has not bothered to hide its so called
desire to teach Pakistan a lesson. The Modi government has decisively closed the
door to a return to diplomacy. Third, unlike the UPA and Vajpayee governments,
Modi has not hesitated to make domestic political capital out of an aggressive
response to Pakistan. At a pre-election political rally in Mumbai on October 9,
he claimed “it is the enemy that is screaming … the enemy has realized that
times have changed and their old habits will not be tolerated.” “The enemy”;
note the choice of phrase.
Such an aggressive response to Pakistan would be justified if there was no doubt
that it had opened unprovoked fire on Indian border posts first. But we have
only Indian government’s word for this. Pakistan has stoutly denied opening fire
first and Islamabad has again a strong stance far more often than New Delhi. But
the Indian media have treated South Block’s press releases as gospel without
once publishing a Pakistani refutation. Such desperate gimmicks are, however,
unlikely to succeed with filthy Indian politics plunging into a spiral of chaos
that augurs ill for prospects of better ties between the two countries,
separated by decades of distrust. The relations between the estranged South
Asian neighbours started off on a hopeful note under the new government in
Delhi, but plummeted sharply after New Delhi unilaterally cancelled the foreign
secretary-level talks last August.
In his UNGA speech, PM Modi merely made an impression that he was willing to
hold talks with Pakistan, but only on the condition that the talks were held
without the “shadow of terror”. But the in the same shadow of terror the world
saw across LoC after Modi’s arrival at home. For, under a succession of Indian
regimes have been sowing the wind in its neighborhood for five decades, and is
now, perhaps, about to reap the whirlwind. The world knows the ordeal of people
living in Indian held-Kashmir as well as they are well aware of the liberties of
people enjoying in Azad Kashmir. That is a visible difference that gives a
higher moral ground to Pakistani stance over Kashmir.
The weak link in the Indian construct is the absence of motive. The Modi
government ascribes its new-found aggressiveness to its frustration over failing
to internationalise the Kashmir issue. But it does not acknowledge the fact that
Pakistan being busy at home to mend the fences on western border with
Afghanistan as its Army’s successful operation Zarb e Azb has been uprooting the
terror. This may be the one good reason for Indian leadership to create an
annoyance for the Pakistan Army on the eastern front. Knowing the bestial
cruelty with which the TTP butchering Pakistani citizens, the nation and forces
unanimously are adamant that it has to be fought and eradicated. To pursue this
fight Pakistan has already shifted more than 150,000 soldiers from the Indian
border to FATA that shows its resilience to combat the menace.
With emerging scenario in Afghanistan, as the last American combat troops
prepare to pull out, the Taliban have begun to show their power. The Afghan
National Army itself is subject to some of the same tribal and sectarian rifts
that have made a joke of the Iraqi army. There is thus the real danger of
desertions, collapse and the acquisition of modern American arms by the Taliban.
The future of the new Afghan government is therefore in considerable doubt where
India has been meddling with its nefarious designs regarding Pakistan. But it
has to remember the fact that in order to preserve its strategic interests in
Afghanistan and beyond, India will need close cooperation and coordination with
Pakistan. India might be confronted with a rapidly changing scenario in
Afghanistan. If India wants to remain in Afghanistan it must change its policy
towards Pakistan.
Obviously, signs ahead of time and gestures from both countries hoisted
prospects for a invigorated commencement to India-Pakistan relations but,
fatefully, due to its integral nature, India neither came up to the expectations
nor it succeeded to ameliorate the image of Narendra Modi from a conservative to
rational statesman. Even though the efforts to penetrate vulnerability between
two rivals is not much but, if one desires to slack off these all-fired
cross-border skirmishes, the call for time would be to abrogate the environ of
mistrust and incommunicado. Opening a window of dialogue would create a unique
opportunity for the two countries to bury the poisoned legacy of Partition and
make a new start towards lasting peace and amity. But the BJP seems to seize
upon his forbearance and projected it as cowardice and weakness. Today it has
made India a prisoner of its own hawkish past.