Politics Of Indian Ocean And Pakistan

 “Whoever controls Indian Ocean controls Asia. The destiny of 21st century will be decided on waters”. Indian Ocean has immense importance in today’s maritime strategic race in Asia. The two emerging powers India and China rely on Indian Ocean both economically and strategically. Most of the energy to China is supplied through Strait of Malacca. Strait of Malacca connects Indian Ocean with the South China Sea. China has its major chokepoints in Indian Ocean. Chinese cargoes pass through Strait of Malacca and Strait of Hormuz to carry out their trade. Both Indian and China want to exercise their hegemony in Indian Ocean due to its growing importance in today’s globalized world. It will not be unwise to say that Indian Ocean is jugular vein of emerging Asian giants. Moreover, China may use Indian Ocean as a tool to counter influence of the US. Every country requires continuous supply of energy to function properly. Indian Ocean is also a passage of energy supply to the US. So, no one will let other to hold up this energy vein. At the same time all want to get hold over this Ocean.

To counter the influence of Indian, China has built strong ties with Myanmar, Bangladesh , Sri Lanka , Thailand and Pakistan. China has built its naval bases in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and other countries contiguous to Chinese chokepoints. China is building road from its southern province to Myanmar to get access to Indian Ocean and mitigating its dependency on Strait of Malacca. Parallel to this, she is also pursuing her policy of Maritime Silk Road. China-Pak economic corridor will connect Xinjiang to Gawadar. It will not only link China with the Middle East through the shortest possible path but also help counter Indian designs. India is investing heavily at Chahbahar port (Iran) to nullify China-Pak nexus.

Given the economic and strategic importance of Indian Ocean, Pak-China relations have entered in new era of mutual benefits. China, our time tested friend, has converging areas with us in so many fields from trade to strategic interests. Pakistan should use this gifted timing in her own benefit to full extent. Now importance of Pakistan has increased than before. Pak-China partnership can counterweight US-India relationship. After the disintegration of the USSR, the US has turned towards India. The US is trying to make a strong ally in the South Asia to contain Chinese interests. India will have to rely on Pakistan to export her goods to Afghanistan with impetus. Unimpeded trade between Afghanistan and India demands construction of roads and rail network linking India with Afghanistan through Pakistan. Indian interest in trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia gives leverage to Pakistan in present Scenario. In the last SAARC summit, India tried her best to convince Pakistan for the construction of rail networks but Pakistan agreed for energy partnership only.

Iran’s nuclear deal has another dimension. Now Pak-Iran gas pipeline can be imagined in near future. Chinese investment in energy sector and Iran-gas pipeline will resolve our energy problems. All of this is happening in the backdrop of Indian Ocean politics. China wants to bypass Indian Ocean for her trade of oil with the Middle East. Owing to this reason she is investing at Gwadar. Iran’s deal may resume projects. India wants trade boom with Afghanistan and can’t ignore Pakistan. Geographical realities have made Pakistan more important than before for regional geo-politics.

Keeping in view of these ground realities, what should Pakistan do? Pakistan should exploit her ties with China. It should improve her relations with India to improve trade relations. In present context, trade is beneficial to both Pakistan and India. It may improve our relations. But Pakistan should not undermine Modi’s aggressive posture. It should maintain an appropriate style in her dealings with regional players. At the same time, Pakistan should facilitate Afghan government for her negotiation with Afghan Taliban. A stable and friendly Afghanistan is necessary to fill the gaps. India should abandon her adverse activities in Afghanistan to destabilize Balochistan and our Western border. We should extend our endeavours to uproot terrorism. In this way, China will feel secure to invest in our projects. India should bear in mind that the timing has changed. She should not underestimate importance of Pakistan. Our unresolved issues with our neighbours can be resolved subject to right moves at right time. Shrewdness and prudence is required to get maximum benefits from this ideal timing.