"If Riyadh wants to arm the
next wave of jihadists to target Russia, armed they shall be. "
After deploying its ground and air assets across Syria, Russia entered into an
agreement with the Shiite leaders of Iran and Iraq to coordinate military
efforts. At the podium of the United Nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin
looked as if he had pulled off a masterful power play in the Middle East. But
Putin seems to have forgotten the dangers of the neighborhood he seeks to
dominate. More importantly, he is ignoring Russia’s recent history of meddling
in the Muslim world. If past is prologue, things could get bloody.
US President Barack Obama, who has arguably looked weakest as a result of
Putin’s muscling into Syria, recently warned that the Kremlin may be heading for
a quagmire. There is unquestionably an element of sour grapes here, but Obama
has a point. The scores of Sunni factions already fighting in Syria—both jihadis
and moderates—are now nearly unanimous in their fury over Russian attempts to
bolster the Assad regime. And so are the traditional financial patrons of
militant Islam in the Middle East. The Saudis have now openly called for an end
to Russian airstrikes.
On the surface, things between Russia and the Saudis appear friendly enough. In
July, Saudi Arabia announced that it would invest up to $10 billion in Russian
agricultural projects, medicine and logistics and the retail and real estate
sectors. This summer, the two countries inked a nuclear power cooperation deal,
accompanied by reports of potential upcoming arms deals.
At the same time, a Saudi economic war against Russia is also underway. While
Iran is their primary target, the Russians are feeling the brunt of it. In 2014,
as it became increasingly clear that Russia and Iran were committed to propping
up the Assad regime in Syria, the Saudis refused to mitigate oversupply in the
market. This has hammered both Moscow and Tehran, as their budgets were based on
$80-90 and $72 per barrel, respectively. Currently, oil is at $45.
As one Saudi diplomat said about this economic strategy, “If oil can serve to
bring peace in Syria, I don’t see how Saudi Arabia would back away from trying
to reach a deal.” It is unlikely that Russia, reeling from the low cost of oil,
now compounded by international sanctions after their invasion of Ukraine, view
the Saudi maneuver so charitably.
Oil profits, not oil poverty, was always the Saudi play in the past. In the
1970s, for example, the Saudis cashed in on their enormous oil wealth to counter
Russian-backed communist governments and political movements. They did so with
more than $10 billion in foreign and military aid to countries like Egypt, North
Yemen, Pakistan, and Sudan. Saudi funding was particularly instrumental in
supporting anti-Soviet (and anti-Libyan) operations and alliances in Angola,
Chad, Eritrea, and Somalia.
But theirs wasn’t only a strategy of bulwarks. The Saudis fueled a generation of
zealous Islamist fighters. The Saudis, who were particularly opposed to the
godless communist ideology, ultimately financed and organized up to 250,000
mujahedin fighters after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979.
Thanks to Saudi inspiration and cash, Pakistani logistics, and additional US
assistance, Arab mujahideen poured into Afghanistan.
The Soviets lost an estimated 14,500 soldiers in the Afghan war (1979-1989),
with many more maimed and wounded. The horrors of the front lines did not reach
the Russian population for some time, as the Soviet Union kept many of the
details and deaths secret in the first years. But ultimately the Kremlin was
forced to concede. After a decade of heavy losses, the Red Army withdrew, and
their puppet government in Kabul fell soon thereafter.
In short, the last time the Saudis made it their business to scuttle Russian
policies in that part of the world, they bloodied the Russians rather badly. And
in the process, a generation of jihadi fighters was born in Afghanistan,
planting the seeds for the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Today, those actors are still
wreaking havoc three decades later, and their progeny – notably, the Islamic
State – is even more radical than the generation before it.
Fast-forward to today and jihadi forces are already targeting the Russians in
Syria. We have already witnessed a string of mortar attacks on the Russian
Embassy in Damascus over the past several months, as well as a number of
reported rocket attacks on the Russian airbase south of Latakia.
Are the Saudis behind any of this? We don’t know. What we do know is that the
Saudis have been sending sophisticated weapons to the Syrian opposition since at
least 2012 by way of Sunni tribal allies in Iraq and Lebanon. The beneficiaries
of Saudi largesse are not exactly filing taxes in Syria, but amidst the fog of
war, it appears that groups such as Jaish al-Islam and Jaish al-Fatah may be in
the Saudi camp.
Jaish al-Islam has claimed a number of high profile attacks against the Syrian
regime, including the 2012 attack on the National Security building that killed
Assad’s Defense Minister, Deputy Defense Minister, and National Security
Advisor. The group also recently released a video declaring war on the Russian
soldiers in Syria. The leader of one group in Jaish al-Fatah, not to be outdone,
warned Russia that they looked forward to “slaughtering” their troops.
For any proxy group to succeed they will need to raise the cost of strikes from
Russian and Syrian warplanes. U.S.-backed rebels have requested anti-aircraft
weapons to do just that. It’s unclear whether their requests will be met, but
it’s important to note that it was exactly this type of weapon that ultimately
turned the tide of war for the mujahideen in the 1980s, when Russian helicopters
began to tumble from the sky. The Saudi government or those close to the ruling
family may be less concerned by U.S. opposition to sending such weapons to
Syria. After all, Russia’s is basically on its doorstep.
Meanwhile, Saudi religious figures are weighing in. 52 Saudi clerics issued a
statement condemning the Russian intervention on religious grounds. Abdullah al-Muhaysini,
a Saudi cleric in Syria linked to the Nusra Front, explicitly warned that Syria
will be a “graveyard” and another Afghanistan for Moscow.
In other words, some Saudi preachers are casting this conflict as a religious
one. And as if Sunni jihadis needed more of an excuse to view the Syrian theater
as the next jihad, the Russian Orthodox Church has come out in support of the
Russian intervention in Syria, calling it a “holy battle.” The Saudi clerics’
denounced this new Christian “crusade.”
To be sure, there is no shortage of Sunni Arab states that wish to target the
Russians. Many of those states, including Qatar and Kuwait, already have groups
on the ground they can work with. It is hard to believe that they are not
mobilizing further assets to do so, particularly as Russian ground operations
take shape.
But it is the Saudis who have done this before on a grand scale. If Riyadh wants
to arm the next wave of jihadists to target Russia, armed they shall be.
Whatever shape the anti-Russia jihad takes, it will follow in the footsteps of
the Afghan jihad by making the world a far more dangerous place.