A nuclear Pakistan fits nowhere
in the Western geopolitical vision of South Asia where India is seen as a
potential regional challenge to the growing Chines might. Despite unrestrained
support and pampering, whether India can assume the envisioned mantle or not
(which remains a highly improbable proposition), Pakistani woes continue to pile
up with every new stride made in the nuclear field.
India and its powerful lobby in the West are at pains to emphasize that India is
ready to assume that role if the only irritant in its way, Pakistan is
effectively neutralized. In nutshell Pakistan must acquiesce to Indian hegemony
and accept the statuesque on Kashmir. Ideally speaking Pakistan should be
persuaded to dismantle its nuclear possessions and if not, it must cap its
nuclear program immediately.
This is an open secret. The West has at no time tried to hide its intent as
regards Pakistan’s nuclear endeavors. At the same time it hasunequivocally stuck
by its policy objectives in South Asia with India occupying the center stage.
After Indian, ‘ Smiling Buddha’ nuclear explosion of 1974, a so-called surprise
test, France and British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) cancelled their contract with PAEC
to build a nuclear reactor in Pakistan. Bhutto felt betrayed and frustrated. He
decided to go it alone. His charisma in gathering all the renowned nuclear
scientists from abroad(giving up their lucrative careers for a sparse living
here) and Dr. Qadeer and his team’s untiring efforts gave Pakistan what no
outside nuclear help could have envisaged.
Pakistan’s nuclear program should have been nipped in the bud like that of Iran
but God had His own plans. The Russians invasion of Afghanistan and the
revolution in Iran stole the focus and Pakistan got enough time to race to grab
its coveted prize. From then on the pressure was on the civilian leadership to
halt the program but the Military was not prepared to part with the most potent
deterrence the nation had striven hard to acquire.
Today, the Pakistani nukes evoke multi-dimensional fears, both, imagined and
real and are shrouded by the mist of ambiguities and misinformation. Two facets
of the problem at least seem to be slowly emerging. One is the fear of Pakistani
nukes falling in the hands of the terrorists, Al-Qaida, ISIS and their like.
This is purely a fallacy the type of romantic blockbusters Bollywood keeps
churning out by the dozens that the Indians fancy and would like the world also
to believe as the Nostradamus scaring prophecy of the last days of the world.
The second fear is genuine and that is the spread of tactical nuclear weapons
combined with an ambitious missile program of tactical and strategic dimensions.
The fallacy part first.
Al-Qaida, ISIS and their ilk, known as Khawarij in Islam traditionally operate
in a definite pattern. They establish a firm base in the target country and then
extend their operations outwards, like Harvra in the days of Ali the caliph,
Kabul in the case of Osama and North Waziristan from where Al-Zawahiri issued
his satanic decrees. Ramadi in Iraq and Palmyra in Syria are the latest
examples. It is impossible for them to acquire a similar foothold inside
Pakistan unless the Military is rendered completely impotent, isolated and shorn
of peoples’ support thatpresently love it so dearly. Though the Khawarij have a
ready ideological connect available in Pakistan and their nuisance value cannot
be ruled out, to credit them with the ability to defeat the Pakistani Military
is merely a figment of imagination.
India is the biggest importer of arms in the world. The huge and daunting
advantage it has acquired over Pakistan in conventional war resource needs to be
adequately counterbalanced. In the modern-day warfare the simple equation of one
into three in comparative strength ratio of men and equipment in defense has
become meaningless. The aggregate response matrix in the realm of the tangibles
is complicated, based on quantification of a host of factors including
sophistication of weapons, ammunition and equipment, fire power including
ranges, ability to operate at night, mechanization, protection cum battlefield
mobility, intelligence through satellites, automation of weapons and equipment,
quality of radars and locating devices and use of latest software and direction
keeping with the help of GPS etc. etc. Pakistan seeks to offset Indian advantage
through tactical nuclear warheads and short-range missiles. The world’s concern
in this regard is not entirely unfounded at least for the simple reason that it
canlead to an unbridled proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region.
We do not envy Israel. Its missiles can hit any city in Europe. According to Dr.
David Duke, Israel is believed to have threatened that it would not go down
alone. It also had once offered to sell nuclear technology to South Africa. We
cannot grudge even the Indian privileges in the present day world. India’s
latest experiment of Agni-IV (one tone nuclear warhead and 3500 Km range) and
its future Agni-V with 10000 Km range giving it “a global nuclear strike
capability” do not seem to cause the faintest stir in our nuclear sensitive
world lost in its reverie of seeing India as a future world power. We cannot
stop someone from entertaining unrealistic notions. What we can do is to at
least lay our heart open before our friends. If diplomacy means deceitfulness
and duplicity we might as well shelve it for a while.
We must candidly tell our friends that, it is impossible to convince our people
to accept Indian hegemony and the statuesque on Kashmir despite India’s size and
place it enjoys in our friend’s estimate. We are no revisionists but Muslims
have ruled India for a greater part of its recent history. It will be impossible
to reverse peoples’ mindset even if the leaders were willing to oblige. Two, we
can never hope to match India in conventional war sinews. We have to find an
appropriate response to Indian abilities and intent amply and ominously
demonstrated by Moodi. Three, our nuclear and missile programs are purely for
our own survival. We have no aggressive designs and no extra-territorial
ambitions. We are fully aware of the dangers nuclear proliferation entails. We
will voluntarily stop once the minimum essential is achieved.
We cannot afford any turmoil on our Western borders, which only a peaceful
Afghanistan can ensure.The change of heart is real. The days offriendly Taliban
are over. We are genuinely engaged in eliminating all sorts of terror from our
soil. Our actions prove the sincerity of our resolve. Pakistan must also request
our friends to advise India to stop fanning terrorism inside Pakistan and
attempting to sabotage peace process in Afghanistan just to score a point on us.
We have to remind our friends that had it not been for the nuclear weapons,
Sunder Ji’s “Exercise Brass Tacks” (1986) could have been easily converted into
“Operation Brass Tacks”. And it is only because of the tactical nuclear weapons
that the Indian “ Cold Start Strategy” has been dispatched to the cold storage.
Our friends may lend a more sympathetic ear to our concerns. We are indeed faced
with a real threat to our sovereignty.
Hence, It is time for talking straight for a change.
(The author is retired Major General)