Op-Ed by Senator Sehar Kamran T.I.
“Public health is really closely tied to the social, political and economic
issues of the world. Where they go awry, public health can quickly go
awry.”–Michael Osterholm
The world is currently grappling with the yet untamable monster of COVID-19, as
the global tally of people infected is on an upward march. Until 6th April,
2020, more than 1,274,923have been tested positive for the virus globally; with
more than 69,000 dead, and 260,484 recovered. As clichéd as it sounds, the world
as we knew has completely changed. Undoubtedly, the post-COVID-19 world will
have a different reality, as compared to the one we were living in.
From increased distrust of global institutions erected post-World War-II
(especially financial ones), to a growing international skepticism and waning
trust between states, rise of authoritarianism, and a surging state surveillance
impinging upon citizen’s privacy are some of the long-term impacts of this
pandemic, which are going to reshape the world.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the world is officially in a
global recession. The fund stated that this recession would be worse than the
one following the 2008 economic crisis with no respite in sight. Undeniably, the
pandemic has injected a lot of economic uncertainty across the globe with almost
the entire world in a shutdown mode. In the first three months of 2020, the
global stock markets have crashed around by 30 percent. The longer the lockdown
lasts, the worse the economic conditions will get. The global supply chains have
been upended, and it will take time for them to become functional again. An
unprecedented level of unemployment is on the rise globally, with no clarity on
when businesses will open and normal life will resume.Though researchers are on
task to find a vaccine and treatments for the virus but it will take time, from
some months to year or more, until then social distancing and lockdown is the
only way forward to break the transmission chain and contain the spread of
pandemic.
The third world countries will be hit the hardest. As per the UN Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report released on 30thMarch stated that,
“developing countries, including Pakistan, will be hit hardest by the economic
shockwaves caused by the novel coronavirus crisis that has shaken the world and
will need a support package of up to $2.5 trillion to cope with the damage.”
The wave of economic distress across the globe will further erode the perception
of international organizations like the UN, IMF, and WTO, etc., which have
already been under severe criticism from different quarters. The states will
adopt more inward policies in order to protect their interests and it will have
a negative impact on global trade and cooperation.
The bilateral cooperation between states which was already under strain prior to
the pandemic will further weaken. The countries will view each other with more
skepticism and the transparency in relations will further erode. The US
intelligence has alleged that China has hid the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak
which aggravated the situation globally and is not revealing the real number of
pandemic casualties, so much so that the US President went ahead and termed the
novel coronavirus as the “Chinese virus.” Moreover, these allegations against
China are now being echoed by the rest of the world as well, as they hold
Beijing’s silence complicit in the spread of the virus. China has rejected these
accusations.
One of the after-effects of the pandemic is going to be the undermining of
democracy as an institution and an increase in authoritarianism around the
world. A glimpse of this has been seen already in the form of Hungary’s new
“Corona Virus laws”, which give the country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban
sweeping new powers, without any time limit. Although the EU and others have
criticized this move, it is worrying that other states are considering to
implement similar measures. Authoritarianism is creeping slowly and steadily
into the power capitals of Europe and other regions, where populist leaders are
‘using the pandemic as an excuse to tighten control over their countries.’
Another victim of the post COVID-19 world will be the civil liberties and
privacy of citizens. Currently, several states like Iran, China and Israel have
launched coronavirus applications to monitor location of its citizens. Such
measures can continue post the pandemic with States making news laws infringing
upon citizen’s privacy with an increased electronic surveillance in the name of
protection.
One of the positive impactsamidst all this, which has already been announced, is
the ban on the consumption and farming of wild animals by China. This step will
help in curtailing any future epidemic or disease which might spread from the
eating or trading of wild animals.
In order to prevent a future epidemic or pandemic, developed countries,
multinational corporations and conglomerates will now invest more in research
and development, because the novel coronavirus has shaken the foundations of the
global economic system and exposed the world’s lack of preparedness to fight
this deadly disease. It is hoped that in the post COVID-19 world, states would
review their strategies, and will give scientists and healthcare professionals
their due in protecting the people.
History is witnessing that humanity has overcome a number of deadly pandemics
and epidemics over the centuries. Undoubtedly, the world will come out of this
pandemic albeit shaken but not broken. The human spirit will prevail.The
complete financial and political repercussions of this pandemic will only come
to the forefront after it is over, but it must not stop the cooperation between
states because only by working together, we can achieve milestones and miracles.
(The writer is former Senator and founder of Centre for Pakistan and Gulf
Studies (CPGS).She tweets @SeharKamran)