The relationship between India and China has seen sporadic
turbulence throughout their shared history. After the partition, Nehru sought to
establish cooperative relationship with China. Both countries, having
aspirations to attain regional and great power status, sought to further their
objectives through cooperation. This led to a series of high dignitaries’
bilateral visits during the early 1950s in which mutual cooperation and economic
development were the main themes.
Nehru’s dream, however, was shattered when both countries went to war in 1962
over the disputed Himalayan border. A humiliating Indian defeat resulted in
hiatus inthe bonhomie.Post-Nehru, it was Rajiv Gandhi who picked up the baton
and on his first visit to China in 1988, sought to reestablish friendly
relations between the two countries. The relationship, however, soured with
border skirmishes occurring in Depsang in 2013 culminating in the Doklam
Standoff in 2017. Recent Summits held in Wuhan and Mahabalipuram have been an
attempt to deescalate the situation but the current standoff in Ladakh has
raised tensions with no signs of reinstituting status quo ante despite the
Foreign Minister-level parleys. The fissures in this relationship are well
entrenched having geopolitical, economic and military domains.
In the geopolitical domain,the World Order is in transition. Observers argue
that the world is now moving towards a multipolar world with the US and China as
the main poles. This transition process has furtheraccelerated by the Covid-19
pandemic. The US national security strategy stipulates China as the major
strategic competitor, challenging its global hegemony in world affairs. In this
context, the US is propping up India to counterbalance China.The Sino-India
contestation in Asia for regional order i.e bipolar vs unipolar has also set in.
However, the Chinese influence in the region is growing owing to its ever
increasing economic and military prowess. China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a
flagship of the Belt and Road Initiative, is on the track. Multidomain
cooperation between China and Bangladesh; with China recently selling submarines
to Bangladesh thereby increasing her dependence on China in military affairs.
Nepal under Chinese influence is exerting autonomy vis-à-visIndia.China-Sri
Lanka economic cooperation is also on an ascendant path, Chinese company CHEC
investing $1.4 billion in expediting the port city of Colombo, a project which
is estimated to bring in $13bn worth investments and 80,000 jobs. A proposed
multi-billion strategic partnerships between China and Iran will further enhance
China’s influence in Iran vis-à-visIndia.India views all these developments in
its immediate neighborhood as steps undermining its influence in the region.
Therefore, Indian policy allies itself with the US in order to counter the
Chinese ambitions in South Asia. Upgrading the status of Quad, a strategic forum
between Japan, India, Australia and US to ministerial level and India’s active
cooperation with US-likeminded countries in the Indo Pacific is to be seen in
this context.
Economic Domain
Economic strength is considered to be one of the hard powers of any state.
China’s economic growth over the past 3 decades has been remarkable with average
growth rate of over 6 percent. As of current statistics, China has a $13
trillion economy with global economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road
project connecting over 60 countries. India on the other hand has a smaller
economy of $2.179 trillion. Current Chinese trade with India is at a massive
$89.6bn. While this trade is important for both the nations it is only 6 percent
of China’s totalGDP, whereas, with India it is 13 percent thus making it
important for India to maintain trade relations with China. India’s trade
deficit with China is $56.8bn as of 2019 statistics. China continues to dominate
the manufacturing sector, attracting major businesses around the world,
promoting trade deals and mutual economic cooperation. This creates a major
impediment for Indian policymakers as it undermines its potential as a lucrative
investment destination. Make in India, a flagship project launched with a vision
to attract global investors could not flourish due to the dominating China
market in the region. Economic prowess further poses a direct threat to India as
increased Chinese military potential is a corollary of its economic strength.
In the military domain, the 1962 Sino-India war that resulted in a humiliating
defeat to India is etched in the Indian memory. Both boast a massive military
force with China being the third largest military power with a budget of $178bn
followed by fourth largest military force India with a military budget of
$61.5bn. As of 2019, China’s military is 5 times bigger than India. Its
superiority poses a direct threat to India as both share3488 km contentious Line
of Actual Control which is neither defined, delineated nor demarcated. This has
led to multiple skirmishes or standoffs across such as Depsang(2013), Chumar
(2014), Doklam Standoff (2017) and the most recent one in Eastern Laddakh which
has the probability to mutate into a limited war. China is a nuclear power too
with almost twice the number of nuclear stockpiles as compared to India. China’s
nuclear capability is the primary reason given by India for going nuclear in
1998. China is modernizing its military at a fast pace. According to defense
analystPravinSawhney, the Chinese capabilities in cyber, space and
electromagnetic spectrum are unmatchable by India.
The Sino-India power struggle is not a new phenomenon;under the prevailing
global environment, the struggle for regional dominance between India and China
will further complicate their relationship. China enjoys both military and
economic dominance over India and continues to exert its influence.
Geopolitical, economic and military irritants are likely to increasethe
probability of conflict in the near future. Indian policymakers view China as
the primary rival towards their regional and global ambitions thus making the
Sino-India struggle for regional dominance an enduring one.
(The author is student at NDU)