China’s influence in Pakistan

The impacts of growing great power competition are evident around the world, especially within South Asia, where India seems to have forged an alliance with the US to compete with China. On the other hand, American relations with Pakistan have experienced significant stress over the past two decades. Yet, the US is increasingly wary of Pakistan becoming a Chinese client state. Several US based think-tanks and high-ranking American officials have warned Pakistan of predatory Chinese lending and cast doubts about Chinese investments in Pakistan via the CPEC.

Now, a new index (the China Index 2022) has placed Pakistan at the top of the list of countries beholden to Chinese influence. While other entities like AidData at US-based William and Mary’s Global Research Institute had already been analysing China’s expanding portfolio of overseas investments and soft power activities, the China Index 2022 is said to be the first research initiative to comprehensively measure China’s influence overseas. This Index is not created by an American think-tank but instead it has been published by the China in the World (CITW) Network, an initiative of Doublethink Lab, a Taiwan-based non-profit entity. Yet, the Index’s committee includes several American academics and policy analysts as well.

The China Index 2022 focuses on 82 countries which are thought to be within the Chinese sphere of influence. While Pakistan tops this ranking, Singapore is listed in third place. Germany is ranked 19th, which places it first amongst European countries to be mentioned on this index.

While Pakistani media and academia is said to be less beholden to Chinese influence according to this China Index 2022, Pakistan is considered a frontrunner in the so-called ‘dependence cluster’. This ‘dependence cluster’ refers to Chinese influence over Pakistan’s economic, technological and domestic politics domains. Pakistan has also been placed first under the ‘rulemaking cluster’ which implies that China exerts significant influence over Pakistani military, law enforcement and foreign policy domains as well.

Pakistan being on the top of the list of countries influenced by China is obviously receiving pushback within the country. However, it is concerning that about 30% of Pakistan’s foreign debt is now owed to China, according to another recent report released by IMF. It is also evident that China has now replaced the US to become the largest supplier for military hardware to Pakistan.

Nonetheless, placing Pakistan on the top of a list of countries where domestic politics, foreign policy decisions and law enforcement policies are being largely influenced by China is overkill. It is particularly unfair for countries wary of Chinese ambitions (especially the US) to raise fears about an authoritarian Chinese regime further undermining the prospects of Pakistan’s already fragile democracy. Such alarmist assessments of Chinese influence in Pakistan tend to forget how US support enabled the longevity of the Ayub, Zia and Musharraf regimes.

Pakistan certainly does need to diversify its foreign direct investment portfolio and desist from providing blanket endorsement to problematic Chinese policies concerning Taiwan or the situation in Xinjiang. However, it is unfair to entirely dismiss Pakistan’s agency over its policymaking decisions. After all, at the time when other foreign direct investment was drying up, it was Pakistani leaders who approached China to invest in Gwadar seaport and to then launch CPEC. Attempts to portray Pakistan as a Chinese client state will further harm its international reputation and risk making Pakistan even more dependent on China.