The IMF loan will stave off
what some feared was an imminent economic collapse in a country at the frontline
of the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda. But it falls well short of the $10
billion to $15 billion Pakistani officials have said they need over the next two
years.
"We have to focus on finding more money," said a senior finance ministry
official. "We plan to go back to our friends, America, to London, to Berlin and
the rest of Europe, to China, to ask for help."
President Asif Ali Zardari had insisted that Pakistan wouldn't need IMF aid, but
he found the country's major donors deeply reluctant to bail it out.
Even if those allies do come up with more money, having to turn to the IMF for
help caps a humbling two months for President Asif Ali Zardari, who leads
Pakistan's first democratically elected government in almost a decade and is the
widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
Upon taking office in September, Mr. Zardari insisted Pakistan wouldn't need IMF
aid. But he found the country's major donors deeply reluctant to bail out
Islamabad, in part because of doubts about his ability to manage the economy
without international oversight.
Recently, Islamabad has increased interest rates and plans to slash electricity
subsidies, moves that have been praised by the IMF. The government has also
eliminated ruinous fuel subsidies that helped to bring about Pakistan's economic
crisis by draining its foreign-exchange reserves, which currently would cover
less than two months of imports.
Neither Pakistan nor the IMF has disclosed the conditions of the 23-month loan
package. The opposition was quick to criticize the deal, saying the
belt-tightening measures would only hurt the poor. "This IMF loan the government
is getting is, in fact, poison, and the nation has been forced to drink it,"
Javed Hashmi, a senior figure in the opposition Pakistan Muslim League under
Nawaz Sharif, told reporters.
Under the loan deal, the IMF has provided $3.1 billion to keep the country from
defaulting on its international debts; the remaining money will be disbursed
over the next two years. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are also
expected to provide loans, and Pakistani officials said that very earlier China
had agreed to provide a $500 million loan, as well.
Those loans "are not enough, but will give them a lifeline," said Brij Raj
Singh, the chief executive of Dubai-based Baer Capital Partners.
Hopes for cash infusions from other allies, who are facing economic problems of
their own, "may not be realistic," the finance ministry official said.
Instead, a senior planning ministry official said Pakistan is looking to the
U.S., China and some European countries to help fund major infrastructure
projects, such as dams and highways, which are being discussed as a part of the
so-called Friends of Democratic Pakistan initiative.
The IMF also made it clear that Pakistan needs more money, saying Monday that
"additional donor financial support will help consolidate the country's
international reserve position and finance the expanded social safety net."
Even if Pakistan gets all of the money it needs, its economic future is deeply
uncertain. Inflation is running at around 25%, its stock market is down about
35% since the start of the year, and the rupee has plunged against the dollar.