Maharashtra assembly poll: Outcome to shed some
light on future course of major political parties
For the 288 assembly seats, voting is slated
for Oct 15 while counting will take place on Oct 19
Pre-election opinion polls are giving BJP an upper hand. However, Shiv Sena,
Congress, Nationalist Congress Party and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) have
dubbed it as ''paid'' ones and refused to go by their findings.
Interestingly,Shiv Sena has not yet given up but declared all out war against
BJP and Modi blaming them for betrayal and back stabbing.
On the other hand, Congress party, which is yet to recover from its crushing
defeat in Lok Sabhha poll, has left party's prospects to their regional satraps.
However, for Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), it is a fight for survival as
Maharashtra being its citadel.
On top of it, assembly poll is a matter of prestige for Sharad Pawar who has
already retired from the electoral politics. As far as MNS is concerned, it is
an opportunity to revive and stay afloat especially after rout in the Lok Sabha
poll.
Despite mounting criticism from Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, the Prime
Minister is avoiding verbal duel but making repeated appeal to voters to give
BJP a comfortable majority for a strong government to scale Maharashtra's growth
new high. Modi is also attacking Congress and NCP for Maharashtra's downgrade.
On the other hand, Uddhav is targeting Modi for dividing Maharashtra and Modi's
silence for the Sena-BJP split. According to Uddhav, Modi has ditched Sena even
though they stood by him during his worst phase in 2002 during the Gujarat
riots.
Uddhav is appealing vote for the sake of Maharashtra's pride sending out a
strong signal that his party will not surrendered before BJP or Modi even after
the elections in the wake of fractured mandate. More importantly, Uddhav is
cashing on Bal Thackeray's legacy reiterating that there only Bal Thackeray wave
no Modi wave in the assembly election.
For Modi, BJP government in Maharashtra is quite crucial to pursue his plan to
develop Mumbai as a global financial centre and capital for skill development. A
weak Shiv Sena will help BJP to further consolidate its presence across the
state.
However, Shiv Sena has been successful to play ''United Maharashtra"card which
forced BJP to drop Vidarbha statehood from its manifesto. The party has ruled
out post poll alliance with BJP.
Curiously, Congress and NCP are fighting assembly poll independently after 1999.
Both have attacked Modi and BJP for bringing disrepute to Maharashtra. However,
they are involved in verbal duel. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has squarely blamed
Congress for snapping ties while Congress is putting onus on NCP. Congress
leadership alleged that NCP has an understanding with BJP but it has been
strongly denied by NCP.
Congress is banking on Mr Clean image of former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan
who is heading its campaign. On the other hand, NCP hopes to cash in on Sharad
Pawar's pro-development, secular image.
In case of Raj Thackeray led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, present assembly poll
is an acid test. MNSclout, which was prevalent in 2009 assembly poll, is not
visible. Besides, lack of strong organizational build up the party is striving
to sell its Maharashtra vision.
Where parties stand
BJP: The party, which rode on Modi wave to win 23 Lok Sabha seats, hopes to win
a comfortable majority in the state. Their biggest strength is tacit support of
RSS Parivar, strong organizational base in Vidarbha, Marathwada and North
Maharashtra. Of course, Modi has a star campaigner. Besides, party has made
enough inroads in Mumbai, Konkan and rest of Maharashtra due to its alliance
with Shiv Sena since 1989. However, loss of OBC leader Gopinath Munde, who after
the demise of Pramod Mahajan, maintained all efforts to survive BJP's alliance
with Shiv Sena, has been a major negative. Already party's seven leaders
including Nitin Gadkari, Prakash Javadekar, Piyush Goyal, state chief Devendra
Fadnavis, Eknath Khadse, Vinod Tawde and Pankaja Munde are the fray to become
chief minister. BJP faces flak for inducting scam tainted former ministers and
leaders especially from NCP.
Shiv Sena: The saffron party is contesting 286 assembly seats after BJP broke
alliance. Party president Uddhav Thackeray is in a driver's seat and he succeed
to keep party united after supremo Bal Thackeray's death. It is a big positive
for party. A lot of Congress, NCP, BJP and MNS members joined Shiv Sena which
stuck to its Mission 150 plank. Uddhav is party's campaigner along with his team
including his son and Yuva Sena chief Aditya, senior leaders Divakar Ravate,
Ramdas Kadam, Anil Desai and Neelam Gorhe. Uddhav titled focus in his favour
attacking Modi on the issue of pride of Maharashtra and Marathi. He also
continued to grill Congress and NCP on its corrupt rule.
Uddhav has said party will get the majority and completely ruled out post poll
alliance with BJP. Besides, he also said the situation will not arise to seek
help from his estranged cousin brother and MNS chief Raj Thackeray.
Congress: NCP's decision to break 15 year alliance and thereby withdraw its
support to the government caught Congress unawares. The imposition of
Presidential rule further made Congress furious. However, it is now clear that
Congress had taken decision to severe its links with NCP as it was not prepared
to carry latter's baggage. Congress leaders including former chief minister
Prithviraj Chavan argued that scam tainted NCP's image may dadversely impact
party's poll prospects. Congress argued that its alliance with NCP helps latter
but it fails to transfer votes to Congress. Despite crushing defeat in general
election, Congress party's presence across the state is a big positive. However,
lack of strong organisational base, factionalism and paucity of funds may go
against the party. Congress has to strive to regain its traditional vote bank
including muslims, minorities, dalits.
NCP: It is a huge challenge for NCP to change the perception of being the most
corrupt party among the voters. It has been targeted by all parties. NCP had
prepared to contest 130 sears considering that its alliance will continue with
Congress. However, the party failed to nominate formidable candidates so also
struggling to cope up with the situation. Party's fire brand leader Ajit Pawar,
who has not hidden his ambition to become chief minister, is attacked in print,
electronic and social media for his controversial remarks and alleged
involvement in the multi crore irrigation scam. However, NCP is countering these
allegations saying that those who perform are always targeted.
MNS: Raj Thackeray hit the headlines for his agitation against north Indians and
also against toll. It is Raj centric party and he has failed to develop second
or thrid rung leadership in the state. His party members have gone back to Shiv
Sena due to lack of clear policy. He is a crowd puller and declared that MNS may
support Shiv Sena after the present assembly election.