Historically when American
higher ups start visiting or concentrating on a country, it gets bewitched in
sectarian or tribal wars. Annals of history are replete with such examples.
Entire Middle East, enmeshed in sectarian conflagration is a flagrant example of
American carioles*1. Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan,
Somalia, Chechnya, Ukraine, Yemen, Lebanon and now even Turkey, all are
galloping with such ailments. For the West–spearheaded by USA—it is the prelude
to New World Order (Synonym—Global…., or Greater ME) hence countries are kept
malleable to their whims; normally by milder control on the money, ammunition
and technology supplies. Sectarian/tribal conflict stratagem is a new,
severely-pernicious, addition to the malleability or pre invasion/intervention
tool-box. A hard nut to crack is dealt with severer-blow of all enveloping
sanctions. One still, not budging (Iraq & Syria), is dealt with severest
defrocking treatment by direct or proxy military intervention. Sectarian
conflict Stratagem was first used by Saudi Arabia in Pakistan. Then USA tried it
in Iraq—mainly as an after invasion management technique. Now it is being used
(Synonym of British doctrine—Divide & Rule) as malleability or pre intervention
stratagem. This thesis is not merely a page from conspiratorial theories
tabloid, but about applied doctrines, revealed in several declassified CIA
documents.
Middle East (Crescent of crisis)
“A recently declassified secret US intelligence report, written in August 2012,
which uncannily predicts – and effectively welcomes – the prospect of a
“Salafist principality” in eastern Syria and an al-Qaida-controlled Islamic
state in Syria and Iraq. In stark contrast to western claims at the time, the
Defense Intelligence Agency document identifies al-Qaida in Iraq (which became
Isis) and fellow Salafists as the “major forces driving the insurgency in Syria”
– and states that “western countries, the Gulf states and Turkey” were
supporting the opposition’s efforts to take control of eastern Syria.
Raising the “possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist
principality”, the Pentagon report goes on, “this is exactly what the supporting
powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is
considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran)”
“Which is, pretty well exactly what happened two years later. The report isn’t a
policy document. It’s heavily redacted and there are ambiguities in the
language. But the implications are clear enough. A year into the Syrian
rebellion, the US and its allies weren’t only supporting and arming an
opposition they knew to be dominated by extreme sectarian groups; they were
prepared to countenance the creation of some sort of “Islamic state” – despite
the “grave danger” to Iraq’s unity – as a Sunni buffer to weaken Syria”
“US forces led by General Petraeus sponsored an El Salvador-style dirty war of
sectarian death squads to weaken the Iraqi resistance. And it was reprised in
2011 in the Nato-orchestrated war in Libya, where Isis last week took control of
Gaddafi’s home town of Sirte. In reality, USA and western policy in the
conflagration that is now the Middle East is in the classic mould of imperial
divide-and-rule. American forces bomb one set of rebels while backing another in
Syria, and mount what are effectively joint military operations with Iran
against Isis in Iraq while supporting Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against
Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. However confused US policy may often be,
a weak, partitioned Iraq and Syria fit such an approach perfectly”
South Asia (Crescent of crisis)
In South Asia similar strategy, between Ghani, Abdullah coaxed partnership;
while both at logger-head and arch enemy Taliban, is being used. Short term goal
of US seems to create conducive circumstances for evacuating its forces and
equipment. Pakistan, in a self-delusional role of peacemaker, is being used, due
to its affinity with Taliban, to facilitate dialogues between Afghan Govt. &
Afghan Taliban. America, in pursuit of its short term goal, has absolutely
disregarded its strategic-partner India’s annoyance and humiliation.
There have been two very interesting developments in the region, which Western
media, albeit as usual, is angling to its advantage.
Mullah Omar (Taliban Leader) died two years ago. This news, despite being in the
know of several agencies, was kept from public very effectively. All of a
sudden, while dialogues were on going, this news was leaked by the unsnugly
Afghan agency in the absence of Afghan President—Ashraf Ghani. There are several
notions circulating about it.
First one is that Pakistani Politicians maneuvered this leak to check the
Pakistan Army’s crackdown on their corruption; in which almost every politician
including P.M Nawaz Shariff and his finance Minister is involved.
Second one, which seems more plausible, is that India, immensely perturbed by
the American re-calibration coupled with Pakistani Military’s recent moves;
which greatly disadvantaged Indian strategic depth in the region, has worked it
out in cahoots with Afghan secret services agency NDS. Its Immediate fall out is
the derailment of ongoing dialogues, ensuing of a power struggle among Taliban
factions, pushing a flock of Taliban to IS folds.
India, with American implicit blessings, mad a sizeable investment in Iran and
Afghanistan in pursuit of permanent foothold, which is being jeopardized due to
American shift. This leak seems to have served Indian objectives very well.
Other development is that IS (Islamic State) has been inducted into the area
while prominent Taliban joining their ranks. This News leak, causing dissention
in Taliban ranks, has resulted in Taliban flocking to join IS. IS has brazenly
shown its presence with several killings by blasts. According to some sources
this move has been orchestrated with Western, Israeli and Indian blessings. All
three have their reasons; such as a check on Iran, Mullah Umer’s faction and
continued mayhem in Pakistan.
Affording a sanguine look to the situation, however, IS might not find a
breeding ground in Afghanistan Iran or Pakistan as it did in Iraq and Syria. In
that region an element of discontentment, despair and resentment–in shunted out
of the system Sunnis–was a very a potent factor. In Pakistan, Iran and
Afghanistan there is no such deep crater. It might however, be an irritant in
general and to Shia’a Iran in particular. It would, on the other hand, certainly
be able to inflict a severe blow to Indian Sovereignty. The elements of despair,
discontentment and subjugation very much exists here. Per Times of India 174
secessionist groups are already operating in 13 of its states. Honestly
speaking, it can be said with all certainty that India, if involved, has played
its hand devastatingly erroneously.
East Africa–Kenya
Kenya with very low Human development rate, having 12% Muslim Population
including Shia’as and a tribal mix of more than 10 tribes could be a breeding
ground for sectarian or tribal conflicts to exploit its resources. China’s
growing influence in Africa is the catalytic imperative necessitating President
Obama’s visit. China ranks top on the direct investment and Import chart of
Kenya.
Ethiopia (Horn of Africa)
President Obama surprisingly, after being shellacked in his fatherland Kenya,
abstained from propagating GAY RIGHTS in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has a mix of all
three major religions comprising of 33% Muslim population and about a dozen
tribes with their own distinct languages. A deep rooted tribal and
inter-regional disharmony exists—Especially due to historical baggage with
Eritrea and Somalia. Although Ethiopian economic situation is better than Kenya
yet it is more prone to sectarian, tribal and regional conflicts. At present it
is sort of helping Somalia, fighting Al Shabab militant group; who is wrecking
havoc in several contiguous countries, it may not dissipate the deep rooted
historical animosity between them. Chinese run Ethiopian Oil Field Ogaden. Other
than this Chinese foot print in Ethiopia, up until now, is limited.
There are few countries, in particular, which sure need to be wary of being
bewitched sooner or later. Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia (other Sheikhdoms;
with huge income disparity, may disintegrate for indigenous reasons, since they
are artificially fabricated family owned entities). Pakistan would remain most
vulnerable unless Pakistan Army re-mans & redraws the political landscape. Saudi
Arabia cultivated nothing but adversaries hence would be lucky to survive
unscathed. Iran very smartly has embarked on a prosperous journey by negotiating
a nuclear deal with the West.
Turkey, on the other hand, has made a blunder by jumping in the west
orchestrated fray. It would take whole town for it to extricate itself from this
Bathypelagic*2 Zone. IS has nothing to lose but to gain even if it could retains
a few mile long stretch of land. INDIA, a house of cards, seems at the brink of
balkanization. It may implode in domino-effect fashion, for all natural and
human forces are working against it.
Future seems to belong to USA & China as leading powers. Second tier may include
Russia, Japan & Europe. Third tier would include, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and
Nigeria, Rest would fall in the 4th tier.
Explanations.
*1—two players sitting on the edges of a fast moving round swing frolicking with
a ball which never falls in the hands of the designated recipient due to
antipetal (centrifugal) force.
(Deliberate Wickedness)
*2—Bathyl zone of the Ocean 3300 to 13k ft deep with extreme psi pressure.