Saudi Arabia's oil exports climbed in September, and the country is pumping its way into a major crisis
(Mian Khalid Jamil, Lahore)
Saudi Arabian oil production
climbed in September according to data from JODI, showing that the world's
biggest oil producer sent 7.11 million barrels of oil abroad per day.
There's no sign the country is making any effort to slow down its production,
even as oil prices slide.
A barrel of Brent crude oil is hovering around $44, down from over $110 a year
and a half ago. That's part of a deliberate strategy by the main exporters,
which are aiming to protect their market share and damage the previously booming
US oil industry.
But there are serious worries that Saudi Arabia's strategy is storing up
problems for the future.
At a Reuters conference on Tuesday, hedge fund founder Stephen Jen voiced
concerns about the country's ability to rebalance to the reality of the new oil
price. He said: "For Russia, in the short term the most efficient way (to
adjust) was to devalue the rouble. Go to Saudi Arabia, same shock but with a
pegged currency, it can't devalue."
Participants also said the country might be facing a fiscal crisis in three to
five years.
The International Monetary Fund named Saudi Arabia among the countries that have
around five years' worth of fiscal buffers left should oil prices remain near
their current lows.
There are also serious concerns about the country's internal stability. Analysts
at RBC Capital Markets referred to Saudi Arabia's "game of thrones" in a note in
late October, drawing attention to the rise of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman and the discontent that has caused among other members of the royal
family.
There's a limit — both political and economic — to how long Saudi Arabia can
keep doing this. Its aim is to clamp down on non-OPEC producers, and the longer
it does that for, the closer toward danger it is straying.
(special thanks to Mr.
Mike Bird for this information)