F Z Khan and Prof Khurram
Shahzad
The Pakistan-China friendship has really been heralded as what is being called
“higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, sweeter than honey, and
firmer than steel.” In the past, Pakistan and China have pursued, successfully,
a variety of difficult projects that were thought impossible due to the
constraints involved yet managed to achieve success. The Karakorum Highway
stands as a testament to the fact. Utilizing firm political resolve,
revolutionary insight and unyielding fortitude, both nations once again are
surmounting the challenges, and transforming the CPEC from dream to reality in a
short span of time.
If connectivity is becoming the basis of a new geopolitics, CPEC should be rated
most potent symbol of this 21st century version of the Great Game in recent
times. A Great Game whose outwards manifestations are multi-lane highways,
pipelines and container traffic. The $46 billion CPEC is the flagship project
within the even more ambitious Belt-Road programme of the Chinese leader, Xi
Jinping, a transcontinental infrastructure project that would effectively
convert the Middle Kingdom into the logistics hub of Eurasia and, potentially,
the centre of the global economy.
Security concerns remain the most primary challenge to the CPEC as yet. An arc
of militancy stretches from Xinjiang to Gwadar consisting of the groups like
East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Daesh (ISIS), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA),
Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and militant wings of political parties. Most
of these groups may not have an enmity with China itself but rather intend to
use attacks on the Chinese interests like CPEC as a means to deal with the
Pakistani state. There are also indicators of foreign intelligence agencies
engaged in espionage against the CPEC. In fact, reports of the formation of a
specific desk to deal with the CPEC at the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW)
headquarters have been widely circulated.
As an economic enterprise, for CPEC, the greatest challenge comes from the
competitors. The most significant is the Iranian port of Chabahar. India intends
to invest significantly ($85 million) in the development of Chabahar, which lies
a few miles away from Gwadar and is part of its efforts for access to the
landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing rival Pakistan. The
Indian involvement in Chabahar is linked to Pakistan’s refusal to allow India
access for transit to and from Afghanistan, so India sees Iran as the next-best
option. In recent years India has been particularly active in engaging the
Central Asian states for sake of pursuing energy deals.
India also considers the CPEC as a strategic threat to its military and economic
interests and pervasive influence in the region. India vehemently objects to
CPEC, given the matrix of intense geostrategic competition it gives Pakistan a
strategically profitable position along the Arabian Sea. Authentic evidence
exists about a special cell within RAW funded solely for acting against the CPEC.
One of our very close friends, the UAE, sees Gwadar a challenge to its virtual
monopoly over trade in the Gulf and or the Asian Continent. Rather strange since
India is assiduously promoting the "Chabahar Port" initiative in Iran close to
Gwadar to provide Europe and Central Asia as an alternative, having more of an
effect on the UAE than Gwadar.
Under the given circumstances, providing security for the CPEC is a huge
challenge that the military has accepted and is in line with what has already
been raised — a division-size force called Special Security Division (SSD) that
directly reports to the GHQ. Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan formally announced
the raising of SSD the other day. Affirming Islamabad’s resort to forestall CPEC,
the Pakistan government pledged to provide 17,000 troops, including 5,000
trained specifically in counterterrorism. Twenty-two additional wings of Civil
Armed Forces, units of the Special Services Group, Rangers containing a serving
major general as a head and police deployment as well, to supplement this
security division.
The military will obviously have to deploy such a large force given the vast
geographical space on which these multiple administrative projects are coming up
and which it is committed to defend it. But it’s not guarding the physical space
of the economic corridor that concerns the military — given the resources, it
does not lack the ability and the capability to perform this task. Protecting
the CPEC requires a number of defensive initiatives, primarily to preempt and
forestall militant attacks. To do this intelligence work will be very important
for the achievement of the mission.
Apart from the dedicated protection forces in the designated areas, the military
has considered to establish some parallel designation of intelligence units. The
military is to build up human intelligence networks and also deploying
reconnaissance as well as armed drones to act not only as its eyes and ears but
also as the quickest means of offensive response to a developing threat.
Planning and constructing mutually coordinating drone bases to constantly
monitor and guard strategically important areas, is likely to limit and mitigate
any threat.
To provide protection to the workers along the CPEC, instead of a three-layer
security plan that was envisioned earlier, Pakistan and China have agreed on a
four-layer security plan. An estimated 32,000 security personnel have been
trained to guard over 14,321 Chinese workers engaged in nearly 210 small and
mega projects in Pakistan. The current plan of providing security to Chinese
nationals also includes over 500 Chinese security personnel for capacity
building of the newly-raised SSD as well as local police to better guard the
precise routes surrounding the port.
According to the plan, Balochistan will be getting more security, as six wings
(5,700 personnel) of the Frontier Corps, 3,000 police officers, and 1,000 Levies
personnel would guard all the roads. It is also assumed that the Pakistan
Marines and the border security forces would also defend the port and its
adjacent roads. More than 3,500 police officers, 900 Rangers, 4,100 private
security guards, and 740 Askari Guards would protect several projects linked to
the economic corridor in Punjab.
In a joint corroboration with Pakistan Navy, the Pakistan military has taken
several notable initiatives to ensure onshore and afloat security of the CPEC
and Gwadar Port. Pakistan Navy is also enhancing its Maritime Domain Awareness
and engaging in Collaborative Maritime Security which as the name suggests is in
association with regional and extra regional navies. The Navy has also created a
separate force consisting of Pakistan Marines for the protection of Gwadar Port
and Chinese personnel. The name of the force is Task Force 88. Apart from the
conventional threats, Pakistan Navy is also preparing its defences regarding any
asymmetric threats to Pakistani ports and coast. China is also helping Pakistan
in producing plutonium at the Chinese built Kyushu reactor and will also sell 8
submarines worth $5 billion, which will give a quantum jump to Pakistan Navy’s
sea defence capability.
Constant surveillance and monitoring of maritime area of interest is being done
by Pakistan Navy at all times and for this purpose, the Navy has deployed
state-of-the-art radar networks, electro-optic sensors and pickets. This not
only helps to fill any gaps that might be left in conventional means of
protection but also generate timely and well-coordinated response if any threats
are mitigated by non-state actors. Pakistan Navy, to strengthen maritime and
coastal security setup has also established Coastal Watch Stations and Joint
Maritime Information Coordination Centre (JMICC). This not only helps the navy
to gather and compile valuable information, but also enables it to synergize
coordinated operations by different security agencies in maritime domain.
The Pakistan-China friendship has really been heralded as what is being called
“higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, sweeter than honey, and
firmer than steel.” A combination of Diplomacy, Intelligence networks, Economic
measures and Military tools are being improvised to counter foreign designs and
secure the Pakistan-China friendship. (ENDS)
(The authors are security analysts based in Islamabad)