Strangely enough, some are of
the view that al-Qaeda is a fantasy created by the US and is not in existence.
This is simply outlandish. Al-Qaeda was founded by Palestinian revolutionary
Abdullah Azzam in 1980s and Saudi national Osama bin Laden (OBL) became one of
its members. This outfit took active part in Afghan Jihad against the Soviet
forces. OBL came in the good books of CIA during the Afghan Jihad. CIA helped in
recruiting and training fighters including Ayman Al-Zawahari from Arab countries
for al-Qaeda. Pakistan also helped in training, equipping and launching
Mujahideen.
Once the US abandoned Afghanistan and Mujahideen including OBL in 1989, and then
invaded Iraq in 1991 and established military bases in Saudi Arabia and
neighboring Gulf States, OBL shifted to Sudan as a dejected man. He held Arab
despotic rulers responsible for allowing the US to intervene in the Middle East
and for the unsettled Palestinian dispute. The US unjust support to Israel
boiled him with rage and he vowed to replace flawed and unjust world order run
by imperialist USA with Islamic order. He came back to Afghanistan in 1996 at
the invitation of Taliban. He became a marked man after his outfit carried out
daring attacks on the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and on the US ship Cole
in Gulf of Aden. His hideout in Khost was targeted by the US cruise missiles in
August 1998 but he survived.
It was owing to his hostile stance against the US that the US intelligence
agencies pronounced him and al-Qaeda responsible for 9/11 attacks without even
carrying out preliminary investigations. After occupation of Afghanistan by the
US led forces in November 2001, he and other al-Qaeda leaders as well as Taliban
leaders took refuge in Tora Bora caves, considered as unreachable. He was forced
to flee after Tora Bora was heavily bombed in December 2001.
He along with his large family kept changing abodes in Pakistan and eventually
got settled in a rented house in Bilal town in Abbottabad in 2005. By that time
his kidneys had started giving him severe trouble and he almost became bed
ridden. Throughout his stay in Abbottabad, he never came out of his house. He
undertook night walks within his compound at night and that too under an
umbrella and under the row of trees to avoid detection by satellites. For all
practical purposes he had become dysfunctional after 2004 and was not in
communication with any of his al-Qaeda leaders. His two couriers were the only
ones who helped him in running the house affairs and in providing medicines.
Al-Qaeda as an entity had got decentralized and compartmentalized.
Opening of second front in Iraq by the US in 2003 gave reason to al-Qaeda to
confront US-NATO forces in that sector as well where Ayman al-Zawahiri came into
prominence and he became the acting commander. Since the attacks on Afghanistan
and Iraq were launched on flimsy grounds and on trumped up charges and the
stance of George W Bush and his team of neo-cons was anti-Islam, it helped al-Zawahiri
in recruiting large number of fighters including suicide bombers from the Arab
world.
Resistance put up by al-Qaeda and affiliated groups in Iraq was so fierce that
the US had to spend $12 billion annually to sustain high intensity war. Sunnis
were taken on board and additional US troops were inducted and excessive force
used to weaken the strength of al-Qaeda in its strongholds of Ambar and Falluja
provinces. The US and its allies suffered over 5000 fatalities and thousands got
injured and mentally sick and finally had to abandon Iraq in December 2011.
The US objectives in Iraq to some extent have been achieved. The country stands
divided on sectarian lines; it has pro-west regime; Iraqi national army is
managing security affairs independently; the US oil companies have acquired
control over Iraqi oil. The US has a forward base to land its troops in future
whenever it decides to launch an offensive against Iran from a flank. However,
its desire to make Iraq a bigger Shia state to subdue Iran couldn’t materialize.
The US could neither subdue al-Qaeda in Iraq nor reduce the influence of Iran in
Iraq. The country is still unstable and sectarian war is continuing.
Politically, economically, socially and militarily Iraq has become a fragile
state.
Activation of Iraq front enabled Al-Zawahiri to make al-Qaeda spread its
tentacles and ideology far and wide. Al-Qaeda having attained a long arm; it can
strike targets under a decentralized arrangement. The main strength of al-Qaeda
is presently concentrated in Arabian Peninsula with major bases in Yemen, North
Africa and Somalia. Pro-US dictators of Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen have fallen and
so has anti-US Qaddafi regime in Libya, while regimes of Syria, Bahrain, Jordan
and Algeria are rocking.
When Qaddafi became a target, CIA and NATO cooperated with al-Qaeda to achieve
their purpose of changing the regime. After Qaddafi’s departure, situation in
Libya is dismal, giving an opportunity to al-Qaeda to increase its influence. In
Syria, the US and NATO are again in collusion with al-Qaeda to boot out Bashar
al Assad. One would not be surprised to discover that al-Qaeda-TTP alignment in
Pakistan was made possible by USA.
Apparently, al-Qaeda has lost ground owing to Arab Spring which many analysts
suspect was CIA-Mossad inspired to break the back of Islamists. Islamic parties
have come in the forefront in the African/Arab countries where dictators have
fallen. Given the dirty role played by the US/NATO in Libya and Syria,
motivation to join the ranks of al-Qaeda will remain alive.
Al-Qaeda has penetrated in the western world including USA where the white
Muslims or permanently settled Muslim Asians are becoming its members in growing
numbers. It is aligned with anti-western elements within western countries and
has stood up against US imperialism. Awlaki who was the leader of AQAP in Yemen
and was killed by the US drone was an American citizen. White Muslims who have
joined al-Qaeda are mostly from USA, Germany, France, Britain and Australia. The
US has spent a fortune to defeat Al-Qaeda and staked its reputation but has
failed to demolish this outfit which has become an international organization.
Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban nexus remained strong as long as OBL was alive since
the latter was a personal friend of Mullah Omar. That equation may not be there
with al-Zawahiri at the helm of affairs. One of the reasons of al-Qaeda getting
weakened in Afghanistan was the total detachment of OBL and growing realization
among the Taliban that al-Qaeda had a big role in their misfortunes. Unlike OBL,
Omar and his Shura have never given any pledge to protect Zawahiri. Moreover,
Zawahiri’s track record of betraying his associates makes him a suspect in the
eyes of Taliban. He may be more comfortable living in Arabian Peninsula, or with
Hakimullah Mehsud led TTP than with Afghan Taliban.
Throughout the 11-year war in Afghanistan, the major resistance was offered by
the Taliban and Gulbadin’s outfit while al-Qaeda was a subsidiary force.
However, the ISAF wrongly presented al-Qaeda as the major threat. This strategy
was willfully adopted since the US knew that US-NATO forces would not be able to
defeat the Taliban, but defeating and pushing out a small force of al-Qaeda
would be easier. Based on this strategy, OBL was demonized and projected as the
biggest monster this world had seen. Perceptions of the Americans and westerners
were conditioned by the media in such a focused manner that when the breaking
news of killing of most wanted man were announced by Obama, the whole western
world started dancing with joy. Drink and dance parties continued throughout the
night, as if the danger to the world peace and security had been eliminated for
good.
On ground, nothing of the sort happened. Resistance by Taliban and al-Qaeda
continued against occupation forces and those allied with them with greater
fervor. The drawdown commenced in July 2011 two months after the death of OBL.
Reprisal actions by Taliban, TPP and al-Qaeda combine are continuing on both
sides of Pak-Afghan border. In order to hide its embarrassment and to satisfy
its hurt ego, the US is claiming that after decade old hard fight, al-Qaeda has
been drastically enfeebled and its fighting strength in Afghanistan is no more
than 50 to100 fighters. In fact Leon Panetta is on record having stated in 2011
that only 25 al-Qaeda fighters were left in Afghanistan.
If any country that can take credit to weaken al-Qaeda, it is Pakistan and none
else. Pak security forces caused immense losses to al-Qaeda and dismantled its
network in South Waziristan and other parts of FATA. Majority of most wanted
al-Qaeda leaders including those allegedly involved in masterminding 9/11 were
arrested or killed by Pak security forces which shriveled its overall strength
in this region, forcing many to shift to Yemen. Over 100 al-Qaeda fighters
including several high profile leaders were arrested by Pak security forces and
agencies and were handed over to USA. In 2011 alone, 4219 suspected militants
were arrested by Pak security forces.
With such an outstanding performance, which pales into insignificance the
performances of 48 countries involved in GWOT, it is a pity that Pakistan is
being mistrusted and maligned that it had sheltered OBL. Had Pakistani officials
/ ISI known about the presence of OBL inside Pakistan, they would have reacted
positively to apprehend / kill him to save such chaos which led to lingering
court probes. The US should be grateful to Pak Army and ISI which because of its
pro-active policy forced OBL to lead an inactive life detached from the body of
al-Qaeda.
The US is not acknowledging the sacrifices and achievements of Pakistan because
of ISAF’s dismal performance in Afghanistan. The US has failed on all fronts in
Afghanistan and is caught up in a blind alley not knowing how to exit safely. It
is stupidly trying to cover its failings and soothing its hurt ego by blaming
Pakistan. It must be realistic and appreciate that Pakistan is fighting the most
onerous part of the war which has kept host of deadly Jihadi outfits fully
engrossed inside Pakistan. It must not expect Pak Army to fight ISAF’s share of
war inside Afghanistan. The US and its western allies must realize that their
armies have to fight a long drawn war with al-Qaeda inside USA and Europe and
should brace up to the future threat which has become a stark reality.
Courtesy: Brig (R) Asif Haroon Raja
The writer is a retired Brig and a defence and security analyst. Email:
[email protected]