Apart from hostile eastern
border which has remained a chronic security concern for Pakistan since its
inception, Pakistan’s western border has also remained a source of constant
irritation and anxiety. To begin with, settled issue of Durand Line was
willfully converted into a dispute and Pakhtunistan stunt was played up with the
help of former NAP later renamed as ANP. Khan Brothers tied to Indian Congress
Party and wanting to make NWFP independent or part of Indian Union at the time
of Partition of India in 1947 readily played Pakhtunistan theme. Ghaffar Khan
preferred to get buried in Jalalabad than in Pakistan. His son Wali Khan carried
forward the banner of Pakhtunistan which he perceived extended up to and
including Attock River. President Daood on taking over power in Kabul in 1973
further heated up Pakhtunistan issue and became aggressive. His aggression was
reined in by ZA Bhutto when he cultivated Islamist leaders in Afghanistan
opposed to Dawood’s pro-Moscow policies. Afghanistan provided refuge to all the
rebellious leaders and backed insurgencies in Balochistan. Kabul regime
traditionally preferred India over Pakistan and collaborated with both India and
former USSR to harm Pakistan despite being landlocked and dependent upon
Pakistan for its imports and exports. Brunt of fallout of decade long insurgency
in Afghanistan as a result of Soviet invasion was borne by Pakistan.
Even after the ouster of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in 1989, Pakistan
continued to suffer the after effects of Afghan Jihad that had given birth to
religious extremism and drug culture. Sectarianism produced extremist outfits
like Sipah-e-Sahaba, later named as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and now as Ahle
Sunnat Wal Jamaat, and Sipah-e-Muhammadi. Even when the Taliban came to power
partly with the help of Pakistan and both developed intimate relationship,
sectarian war raged with full intensity throughout 1990s since the Taliban
sheltered and supported LeJ and refused to hand over its leaders. Sectarian war
to an extent got diluted in 1998 as a result of tough measures undertaken by
Shahbaz Sharif regime in Punjab and because of the Kashmiri freedom movement and
emergence of dozens of Jihadi groups like Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba,
which diverted the attention of these extremist groups towards occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan was once again forced to take up the role of a frontline state against
global terrorism and to help the US military in occupying Afghanistan in the
aftermath of 9/11. Over 12 years of war on terror has inflicted maximum damage
to Pakistan both in terms of its economy and human lives. Pakistan security
forces have been fighting foreign supported TTP aligned with al-Qaida and
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi since 2003. Although Pakistan is helping USA in winding up the
futile war that has brought disgrace to the sole super power, and the US exit
plan has become operational since July 2011, departure of ISAF will not end the
problems of Pakistan and Afghanistan since the situation in Afghanistan will
remain in a flux for a long time. The reason is that the Taliban that had
resisted the occupation and waged a Jihad against occupying forces have not been
defeated on the battleground. The Taliban have brought no change in their
ideology, their attitudes and behavior pattern. They consider themselves as the
rightful rulers of Afghanistan since power had been illegally snatched from
them.
The coalition of 48 countries led by USA and assisted by India and Israel has
also not been soundly defeated. Despite its decision to quit, it has not
accepted defeat. Pentagon and CIA are governed by this irrational mindset, which
have all along advocated use of force and opposed political parleys. With less
than two years left for the cutout date of December 2014, the US continues to
devise ways and means how to retain its control over Afghanistan where it has
sunk billions of dollars and wasted blood of so many of its combat soldiers and
injuries to thousands other than losing its prestige. It has invested heavily in
this country reputed to be the graveyard of great empires because it considers
Afghanistan a vitally important military station for the achievement of its
strategic ambitions in the region.
But for crumbling economy which is not getting stable, continuing soldiers
fatalities, growing numbers of suicides, hospitalization of soldiers and cases
of indiscipline in the Army contingent deployed in Afghanistan, mounting home
pressure and declining interest of its western allies, the US would not have
voluntarily opted to leave and that too without making a bargain with the
Taliban. The US could have possibly won this war had the ISAF, Pakistan military
and ANA backed by CIA-ISI-CDS been on one platform and fought the war as a
united and cohesive team. Mistrust and lack of collaboration between the three
so-called partners, ill-intentions of Washington and Kabul regimes, and
wickedness of India and Israel created the unmanageable mess the onus of which
go entirely to USA. Avoidance of boots on ground, relying entirely on airpower
and ANA together with misadventure in Iraq, taking Taliban-al-Qaida threat too
lightly, secretly supporting TTP in Pakistan, discouraging rather than
encouraging Pakistan by blaming it for all its failures were other contributory
reasons which enabled the Taliban to wrest the initiative.
The ISAF has been able to stay on for all these years because of the 2000
US-NATO aircrew operated airpower. On ground, none can match the tenacity of
Taliban fighters since they are the best in guerrilla war. They have no means to
confront the air menace because of which the war has reached the stage of a
stalemate. The day the Taliban get hold of surface to air missiles like Stingers
provided to them by CIA in 1987, stalemate would get converted into decisive
victory for the Taliban and rout of ISAF. This outside assistance is possible
from Russia, China and Iran and possibly from Pakistan if it is ditched by USA.
The Taliban appreciating the lethality of airpower are rightly insisting
departure of all foreign forces by December 2014 and are against stay-back
force. They are mindful of the historical fact that unlike President Najibullah
who managed to stay in power for three years after withdrawal of Soviet forces
with the help of 35000 Soviet trained Afghan Army, they will now have to fight
much better trained and equipped 200,000 strong ANA, 160,000 outfitted Afghan
Police, advanced Central Directorate of Security and RAW trained RAAM. Their
problems are likely to get further compounded by the projected US stay-behind
force of about 10,000 together with drones and airpower and retention of five
military bases till 2024.
Possible way that can expedite the US pullout is the US dwindling economy and
$46 billion defence cuts that have already been levied. So far, 2050 members of
the US military have died in Afghanistan and 18170 US servicemen have been
wounded in hostile action. A new report by the Government Accountability Office
in Washington also has estimated that the US has spent nearly $600 billion on
the Afghan war and even the troop withdrawal through 2013-14 will cost an
additional $5.7 billion. No doubt, these are weighty compulsions working on the
US Administration’s sense of urgency that the Afghan war should be wound up
without any delay, no matter the apparent imponderables in the way.
The other ways of timely and complete pullout are that the Taliban manage to
procure counter air weapons, or green-on-blue attacks against the US ‘embedded
units’ surge due to successful infiltration of Taliban in ANA ranks, or another
crisis erupt elsewhere, or the US succeed in striking a deal with Taliban and
both become allies.
by
Asif Haroon Raja