I was invited by ‘Thinkers
Forum Pakistan’ under the Chairmanship of Air Chief Marshal retired Kaleem
Saadat, to deliver a lecture on the subject at Islamabad Club on 31 March 2013.
I would like to share my talk with you.
Going through the political history of Pakistan, one is constrained to learn
that till 1956, Pakistan was without a constitution and it banked upon
Government of India Act 1935 as an interim instrument to govern the country.
The Muslim League under Quaid-e-Azam had won elections in 1946 and had paved the
way for establishment of Pakistan. However, its popularity graph kept sliding
after the birth of Pakistan because of the fact that almost the entire lot of
leading lights of this party had no roots in regions falling within Pakistan.
Additionally, majority was feudals and landlords who remained cut off from
masses. Muslim League’s first major defeat took place in 1954 in East Pakistan
where Jugto Front swept the polls. Instead of learning a lesson and
restructuring itself, Muslim league got further factionalized due to infighting.
Absentee landlordism was not abolished in West Pakistan.
The first ten-year political era suffered from so much of instability because of
the pathetic performance of the politicians that seven prime ministers changed
hands and strengthened bureaucratic-military oligarchy. The first generation
politicians are responsible for laying down weak foundations of democracy.
Till 1970, no general elections were held for they knew they would be bundled
out by the electorates. Absence of elections stopped the process of pruning of
the unscrupulous politicians and replacement by better ones. Once process of
elections commenced, power and money was used to change election results. As a
result, the same lot of base politicians belonging to select Baradaries plagued
democracy and Pakistani politics.
President Iskandar Mirza sacked Noon’s government on 7 October 1958, abrogated
1956 constitution, declared martial law, suspended political parties and
appointed Gen Ayub Khan as prime minister. Mirza was of the view that unless
desired level of awareness and mass literacy was achieved whereby the common man
could discern the value of his vote, his rights and true meaning of democracy,
parliamentary form of government would not produce tangible results.
Gen Ayub Khan and his military colleagues shared his views that the system based
on western democracy was ill-suited to the people’s psyche. After sacking
Iskandar Mirza on 28 October 1958, Gen Ayub debarred 6000 politicians from
taking part in politics under EBDO and introduced Basic Democracies as an
alternative political system. He also promulgated new constitution in 1962,
lifted martial law and unfettered politicians from EBDO.
Presidential election in 1965 in which Mohtrama Fatima Jinnah stood against Ayub
Khan and lost saw the first instance of electoral rigging. Political agitation
together with economic and political impact of 1965 war put an end to Ayub’s
golden era.
Gen Yahya Khan is credited for holding first ever general elections in December
1970, acknowledged as the most transparent and fairest elections ever taken
place this side of Suez. However, in actuality Awami League had carried out
massive rigging prior to and during polling.
Throughout the yearlong election campaign, Awami League activists together with
RAW agents terrorized the people of East Pakistan and prevented West Pakistani
political parties to hold public meetings. The Governor and Corps Commander in
East Pakistan as well as Election Commission overlooked their hooliganism and
defiance of Legal Framework Order because of overall policy of appeasement of
Bengalis. As a consequence Awami League which campaigned on controversial six
points swept the polls.
When power was not handed over to Sheikh Mujib because of Bhutto’s obduracy and
Mujib creating a state within state, Yahya in his earnestness to save the
situation launched a military operation on 25 March 1971. It however proved to
be the beginning of breakup of Pakistan and triggered a civil war which
ultimately led to disintegration of Pakistan into two and creation of
Bangladesh. Had he not taken the fatal decisions of abrogating 1962
constitution, undoing one-unit, and parity formula settled by consensus,
Pakistan might have stayed intact! Elections rather than integrating the nation
disintegrated the country.
ZA Bhutto piloted consensus 1973 Constitution but carried out several amendments
to control judiciary and established political cell in ISI and FSF to control
politicians. 1977 general elections were rigged by ZA Bhutto’s administration
since Bhutto was keen to win two-thirds majority. It led to formation of
nine-party Pakistan National Alliance. Complete deadlock created by the
irreconcilable politicians resulted in military takeover by Gen Ziaul Haq in
July 1977.
Less PPP, all other politicians got adjusted in Zia created Majlis Shura and
later took part in party-less elections to become members of parliament under
Zia-picked Muhammad Khan Junejo in March 1985. Zia introduced clause of ‘Sadeeq
an Ameen’ for competing legislators. Martial Law was lifted in December 1985 but
after getting 8th Amendment passed which transferred greater powers to President
under Article 58-2B.
For November 1988 elections, IJI was formed to prevent Benazir Bhutto from
winning. Money was used to win over 30 independents. When she won with thin
majority, she was asked to accept Ghulam Ishaq Khan as President and retired Lt
Gen Sahibzada Yaqub as Foreign Minister since she was viewed as a security risk
by the Establishment.
In the 1990 elections, the Establishment was involved in bribing political party
leaders to ensure success of IJI under Nawaz Sharif. Article 58-2B was
extensively used by presidents to sack governments during 1990s.
In the 2002 elections, pre-poll rigging was undertaken to force politicians to
join King’s Party.
Agencies were used to coerce those unwilling to tow the given dictates. Patriots
were the creation of NAB. Former head of ISI’s political cell Maj Gen Ehtesham
confessed that the 2002 elections were rigged in favor of King’s Party.
In the 2008 elections, although the new Army Chief Gen Kayani forbade Army from
interfering in elections, yet the caretaker government, PML-Q, MQM and USA used
their influence to manipulate the outcome of results in their favor. MMA was
trounced and liberal parties emerged victorious. The dream team scripted by
Washington was formed once PML-N left the federal cabinet.
Imran Khan referred the case of bogus voting to the Supreme Court, asserting
that from among the 40-45% votes polled in 2008 elections, over 37 million
voters were bogus. He maintained that with the termination of NRO and unearthing
of bogus votes, the sitting government had no right to stay in power.
About 300 candidates got fraudulently elected in national and provincial
assemblies who had forged their Bachelor degrees. 173 refuse to get their degree
validated. Large numbers of parliamentarians with dual nationalities got elected
in violation of Constitution. Rupees 10-12 billion got eaten up in corruption
every day during PPP’s five-year rule. All public sector corporations are
running in huge losses. While FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are turbulent, Karachi
and Balochistan have been drenched in blood by target killers.
In the last five years, over 8000 people were killed in Karachi by target
killers but not a single killer has been convicted since the ruling coalition of
three parties were deeply engaged in turf war. In contravention to Supreme Court
orders, MQM, PPP and ANP have not abolished their militant wings. Delimitation
of five districts of Karachi is being vehemently resisted by MQM for it sees it
as an attempt to diminish its prospects of gaining total control over Karachi.
It has now referred the case to the UN.
PPP accommodated illegal demands of coalition partners under the garb of policy
of reconciliation, which also gave rise to nepotism and cronyism and sidelined
merit. As a consequence, corruption, inflation, price hike, joblessness,
poverty, and crimes scaled new heights.
The PPP government despite its poor performance is confident that it will once
again win the elections by buying the voters. In its dying days, the PM and
ministers carried out pre-poll rigging openly by diverting development funds,
regularizing jobs, creating new jobs and adjusting officials in right places. Rs
50 billion were spent to rig outcome of forthcoming elections.
Nawaz Sharif has not set aside his piled up aversion for the military
establishment. Having had strained relations with all the Army chiefs, he is not
prepared to buy the idea that the Army is any different under Gen Kayani. Nawaz
extended support to Zardari whenever he was in crisis because of inherent fear
that Army may not step in. This fear psychosis from democracy-friendly Gen
Kayani, who had refused to avail umpteen chances of takeover, is
incomprehensible. Nawaz overlooked misdeeds of PPP and earned the title of
‘friendly opposition because of his innate desire to regain power with a heavy
mandate and to have a full tenure of five years. Shahbaz Sharif’s relatively
better performance in contrast to dismal performance of other three provinces
has helped in catapulting the popularity graph of PML-N.
Tehrik-e-Insaf has emerged as the third force outside the parliament. Imran
Khan’s slogan of change has appealed to the senses of urban youth and has posed
a serious challenge to the two mainstream political parties believing in status
quo. It is likely to cut PML-N’s votes in Punjab, which may go in favor of PPP.
Imran’s Tsunami which had lost its steam has got rejuvenated after 23 March
rally.
Tahirul Qadri’s one-point agenda of electoral reforms sent shivers down the
spines of corrupt status quo loving politicians. They ganged up and unleashed a
vicious propaganda campaign against him. No one can deny that whatever he said
was not true. He showed mirror to those who have taken turns to plunder the
nation. He is not wrong in saying that even hundred elections under the corrupt
electoral system would not bring any change.
APML under Gen Musharraf has also entered the political arena. For reasons best
known to him, he appears upbeat to win the race but has so far not taken off
because of security fears. Religious parties like Jamaat-e-Islami, JUI-F and
others are also flexing their muscles to win seats.
The banned TTP denounces elections, rejects democratic system in FATA and is
resorting to propaganda and terrorism, which is not a good sign. However
participation of Balochistan nationalist parties including BNP of Akhtar Mengal
is a healthy sign.
Flawed electoral system has prevented emergence of true leaders. Corrupt leaders
believing in dynastic politics are responsible for bringing a bad name to
democracy. Chaudhris, Maliks, Waderas, Police, Patwaris, Pirs, Faqirs have yoked
85% of 34 million rural based voters. In order to save the corrupt political
system favoring a tiny elite group, feudal lords prefer sham democracy over true
democracy. Law makers are biggest law breakers.
Election Commission, judiciary, bureaucracy, military establishment, agencies
and interim governments in unison have been recycling same lot of corrupt
politicians in violation of the constitution.
85 year old new Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) is a man of high integrity,
but age factor is a serious handicap. Although timely fair, free and transparent
elections and peaceful transition of power to the next government are critically
important, it is doubtful that CEC succeeds in closing the past unholy practice
of rigging. He couldn’t stop pre-poll rigging and other glaring illegalities. 30
days screening period has been shortened and fake degree holders are ignored.
18th Amendment has curtailed CEC powers and decision making authority rests with
politically appointed four members of Election Commission (EC). None meet the
criteria of Article 147 of Constitution. This anomaly became evident after
selection of 84 year old interim PM by EC on basis of majority vote. Returning
Officers have been chosen by members of EC.
Caretakers and Election Commission are morally bound to ensure strict scrutiny
of contestants under Articles 62 and 63 so that all bad hats are disqualified
and only righteous and truthful candidates with good reputation enter the
legislature. But with so many flaws in electoral system and weak interim PM and
EC, free and fair elections is a pipedream.
Insecure security environment, liberal/secular divide, rising religious
extremism and deep political polarization, give rise to the possibility of
bloody elections. Possibility of assassination of high profile personality to
put off elections cannot be ruled out. No party will win two-thirds majority and
even if one party gain simple majority, it will not be able to form a govt since
losers will reject election results. Egged on by invisible hands, it may lead to
a complete impasse.
There is a school of thought which suspect that it will be under such
circumstances that modified Bangladesh model may be applied to cleanse the
Aegean Stables through strict accountability, improve economy, remove electoral
flaws and then hold elections.
The media has been creating hype to defame democracy, and suggesting military or
judicial intervention, or presidential form of government, or long-term
caretaker setup and is now creating a scare of bloodshed in elections.
The onus of electing the right candidates is on the voters; otherwise one will
have to admit that Iskandar Mirza’s assessment was right. Agreed that democracy
in Pakistan is sprouting in a very sluggish manner, however, all stake holders
including Judiciary, Armed Forces, politicians, media and civil society are keen
to see democracy flourishing in the country. The process is on and steps are
being taken in the right direction to make democracy stronger. The democratic
system is widely popular in the world and every civilized society tends to boast
its propensity and preferences for democracy and its associated values.
Hence, whatever the fault lines, the system should continue to get it purged
from within over a period of time. Democracy is as essentially permissible and
good for tribes of FATA as for any others in Pakistan. Presently, what is
urgently required is effective screening of contestants, avoidance of rigging on
polling day and ensuring security. The only way to prevent rigging on polling
day will be to post Army personnel inside and outside each polling booth, duly
backed by judiciary and EC. Let the next government hopefully made up of better
legislators rebuild democratic institutions, carryout electoral reforms, empower
EC and make it independent.
by
Asif Haroon Raja