Afghanistan is the land of
mystery, mist and melancholy all shrouded in history. Many historians wrote
about the under currents which ebbed and flow this territory even before 1747,
the year when the semblance of present day Afghanistan came into being.
Many empires in history either conquered it through surrogate rulers or
maintained its neutrality through engagements in terms of trade and commerce.
The society therefore become and remained till to date the nomadic and tribal in
nature.
The nomads love their animals and the tribal love their territory, trees and
traditions.To understand the present day chaos inside Afghanistan, it is
necessary to have a brush with the cultural and societal makeup of the afghan
society.
NATO troops realized the same but at a very late stage; everyone takes Kabul as
the key to rule Afghanistan whereas Kabul is the jewel wrapped in rags, the rags
being the country side. This country side is now the ungovernable territory
ruled by one pack of some specie or the other. Mercenaries, terrorists, fifth
columnists, drug barons and criminals all criss cross each other on the highway
to nowhere.
The involvement of outside powers further complicates the matters beyond any
type of corrections. Recent developments are even more disturbing, about a year
ago the IS appeared in Afghanistan, immediately they started their recruitment
campaign.
This was a matter of concern for Taliban who stopped them from doing so. There
started a power struggle and gradually when their clout increased the daiesh
started attacking talibans. The fierce battle took place in the province of
Farah, the most recent skirmishes were held at Nangarhar province adjacent to
Pakistani territory.
The IS is also very much interested to capture Helmand province so that it can
control the opium trade. IS has created a dilemma of fighting on two fronts for
the afghan talibans. Two front wars are a nightmare for any non-state actors
specially whence the fronts are at diverging angles.
So, is the end of phenomenon of talibans is nearing with the emergence of a new
criminal-cum-terrorist organization. Taliban were local fighters who can be
influenced by different warlords and tribal chiefs if such a need arise but the
IS is a foreign fighters based organization which is clamping slowly and
gradually towards Pakistan.
The uzbeks, tajiks and other turkoman are joining the IS, if the same impetus of
recruitment is maintained then soon puktoons will also be joining the ranks
which will be a very dangerous development for both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
On the front of state to state relations between the two countries the president
of Afghanistan Mr. ghani gave an impression that he is a friend of Pakistan and
wants to have cordial relations, but despite few cosmetic efforts nothing
concrete has taken place. The signing of a MOU between ISI and NDS was taken as
a good omen but none of Pakistani demand is met as yet.
Fazallulah is still in the safe environs,the crossings and forays into chilas
and chitral is still going on, the Baluchistan disturbance is continuously being
stoked from inside Afghanistan. Mr. ghani has a appeasing tone while talking
with Pakistan but whenever he is in india, his true voice can be heard and
hidden finger can be seen pointing towards Pakistan. What is actually going on?
Pakistan’s relations with iran are also in a tight snooze. Arab world being
embroiled in yemen is losing the stock of situation in this part of the world.
There is a news that iran is now arming afghan Taliban to square off with IS,
this indicates that Taliban have come a pass where they are desperate for any
help from any one.
At this point in time the war rhetoric of indiais an effort to create a two
front dilemma for Pakistan. Options for Pakistan are very clear, all the fronts
of this war are to be dealt simultaneously, the simultaneity warfare if one may
call it , can be ensued through taking a multidimensional approach, on afghan-pakistan
front, operations inside Pakistani territory be taken to the logical conclusion
with dexterity and speed, on eastern front the inviolability of border be
maintained at all cost and on diplomatic front Pakistan should suggest to
conduct a summit of world leaders to take a realistic cognizes of the
developments inside Afghanistan, because any further worsening of situation will
have regional even international repercussions.
The indian efforts to create SAARC minus one type of a thing has to be stymied
by exposing the indian designs towards small neighbours, in whose way Pakistan
is the only hurdle which india wants to circumvent.