THE 'autonomy package'
introduced by the government for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan is a mix of good
and bad news. The good news is that the area will now have an autonomous status
with a chief minister and a governor. The bad news is that it has been given
only a province-like status and has no institutional link with the four
provinces or the Pakistani constitution.
It is not yet clear how the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance
Order 2009 signed by the president will affect the area's denizens and other
stakeholders. What is obvious, though, is that this is an entirely new
experiment in statecraft where a democratically elected government has created a
province-like entity through an order.
Prime Minister Gilani's statement that Gilgit-Baltistan cannot be given
constitutional status and representation in parliament because of Pakistan's
commitment to a UN resolution is a lame excuse as there is nothing in it that
forbids Pakistan from providing legitimate constitutional rights to the people
of Gilgit-Baltistan. After all, Azad Jammu & Kashmir operate under an interim
constitution enacted by the AJK Legislative Assembly in 1974.
Only recently President Zardari signed a memorandum of understanding with China
for a 7000-MW power project in Gilgit-Baltistan. Then there's the border
agreement between Pakistan and China which is also provisional and subject to
revision upon resolution of the Kashmir dispute. If the Pakistani government can
enter into an agreement concerning Gilgit-Baltistan territories with a third
party, there is hardly any justification for not entering into a constitutional
accord, even if a provisional one, with the region's people.
There are two clear strands of thoughts regarding a possible way forward. The
pro-Pakistan majority supports the area's inclusion in the federation of
Pakistan as a province by adding Gilgit-Baltistan in Article 1 of the 1973
constitution as a territory of Pakistan — it could be subject to revision upon a
final resolution of the Kashmir dispute. Others inspired by Kashmiri nationalist
leaders call for an independent united states or confederation of Kashmir.
Kashmiri leader Yasin Malik is talking about this and prefers that the status of
Gilgit-Baltistan remain in limbo, followed by the option that the local assembly
draft an interim constitution to enable the region to have a legitimate and
comprehensive judicial, executive and legislative structure.
Prime Minister Gilani failed to admit that there has been tremendous pressure
from Kashmiri nationalist leaders whenever the government has taken a policy
decision on Gilgit-Baltistan. It is correct that the predicament goes back to
the Kashmir dispute. The demand for a plebiscite on Kashmir may appear erroneous
but it would be doubly wrong to make the innocent population of Gilgit-Baltistan
(whose future was tied to the plebiscite) pay for someone else's blunder.
The people insist that their area, as large as the NWFP, is not a territory
awarded to Pakistan by the Radcliffe Boundary Commission. According to them,
neither were they freed from foreign tribes as in AJK's case. Gilgit-Baltistan,
they argue, was liberated as a result of a spontaneous local revolt. Denizens
opted to become a part of Pakistan and hence they believe that by get ting rid
of Dogra occupation, which predates the Amritsar treaty through which the regime
acquired Kashmir from the British, they severed whatever symbolic relationship
existed between Gilgit-Baltistan and the former princely state of Jammu &
Kashmir.
On the other hand, the Kashmiri leadership has had difficulty in understanding
Pakistan's dilemma as, over the years, Gilgit-Baltistan's geo-strategic
importance has risen to a level where the area cannot be 'donated'.
There was no Karakoram Highway in 1947 and the water and power crises in
Pakistan has never been so acute as now. Policy circles realise that in a region
beset with conflict and intense competition, Gilgit-Baltistan is crucial as a
trade, water and oil corridor for South, West and Central Asia. With the
Kalabagh dam off the table for the moment and climate change looming large,
upstream water projects have become crucial for the survival and development of
the country.
Containing some of the world's largest freshwater resources on which the
irrigated agriculture of Punjab and Sindh depends, the estimated hydroelectric
potential of the eight rivers and countless streams in Gilgit-Baltistan goes
beyond Pakistan's current needs.
Ongoing mega projects like the Bhasha-Diamir dam further necessitates that
Gilgit-Baltistan be brought into the mainstream and that its people be given a
voice in national decision-making so that the region's public representatives
can also take part in inter-provincial deliberations to safeguard socio-economic
interests.
Renaming the Northern Areas as Gilgit-Baltistan is perhaps the most significant
part of the deal as far as the locals are concerned as this change in
nomenclature will help people regain their lost identity and go a long way in
resurrecting the tourism industry in an area otherwise devastated by the
Taliban.
Moreover, the creation of the offices of an auditor-general, public service
commission and chief election commissioner are positive steps that should have
been taken years ago. But the increase in the list of subjects for the
Gilgit-Baltistan assembly to legislate would mean little if the powers of the
governor to discard edicts are not curtailed. Similarly, while the provision
allowing the local assembly to debate the budget is a positive move what is also
needed is to build the administration's revenue-generation and
financial-management capacity.
True, province-like status given to the region may have saved it from a
situation similar to the one in restive Balochistan. However, if the reforms
prove only cosmetic, the reaction of the people there could turn violent. If
this happens, it would not only hurt the patriotic sentiments of nearly two
million locals but also harm the country's interest in a strategic and
resource-rich region currently surrounded by the Indian military, the Chinese
army, Nato forces and the Taliban.