War always brings hunger, deaths, displacement, poverty and destruction. It is the duty of world’s policy makers and influential ones to promote peace, harmony and negotiations. United States and European were widely indulged in war mongering, arms supply and closed their eyes from atrocities, planned and organized genocides by Israelis against Palestinians and Indians against Muslim minorities and people of Kashmir. Both EU and USA supported the bloodshed in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq. They have dual standard and this dual standard is jeopardizing global peace and stability.
In response to Russia and Ukraine conflict European Union and United States of America imposed sanctions on Russia. The EU adopted five packages of sanctions. The measures are designed to individual sanctions, restrictions on media, diplomatic measures, and restrictions on economic relations with the controlled areas of Donetsk oblasts. These sanctions were imposed on 23rd February, 2022. After February 24, 2022 the EU massively expanded the sanctions. On 8th April, 2022, EU banned on import of coal from Russia. It has full ban and an asset freeze on four Russian banks.
These sanctions as there are general impression that hit Russian economy badly but the other side of the coin is that it also hit the EU economy very badly.
Another objective of these sanctions was to isolate Russia but the reality is that Russia made advancement on political, economic and defence fronts. Russia, China and Iran are determined to change the game.
In recent development G-20 which is a block of the most influential countries split over the matter of imposing sanctions on Russia. The G 20 is a strategic multilateral platform connecting the world’s major developed and emerging economies. The G 20 holds a strategic role in securing future global economic growth and prosperity. The G 20 or Group of Twenty is an international forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union (EU). It is composed of the most of the world’s largest economies including both industrialized and developing countries and accounts for 80% of gross world product, 70 % of international trade , two thirds of the global population and roughly half the world’s land area. The members of G20 are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, The United Kingdom, The United States, and the European Union.
Position of G-20 countries supporting and not supporting the sanctions against Russia
Countries with yes Countries with No
1. France 1. Turkey
2. UK 2. Mexico
3. Germany 3. Brazil
4. Canada 4. Argentina
5. USA 5. India
6. Italy 6. Saudi Arabia
7. Australia 7. Japan
8 South Korea
9. China
10. Indonesia
11. South Africa
Unlike the seemingly bipolar divides of the cold war period, major economies like India, China, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia now have significantly greater economic and diplomatic agency. They have their own priorities, interests and agenda and they don’t follow American agenda or dictation. Many countries want friendly relations with China and Russia as they too like USA are important players in global power game. They could not be ignored. Russia's expulsion from the G20 is unlikely, with most members either against removing Russia from the group or undecided on the matter. Only the US, Canada and Australia support Russia's expulsion. G20 members are likely to maintain their positions, driven by national interest considerations. Russia has been invited at the G 20 summit by its president Indonesia. Indonesia is the host country of G-20 Summit in November, 2022.Within the G20, the BRICKS grouping members have not lined up against Russia. Brazil, India, China and South Africa represent 42 percent of the world’s population and countries like India and China are “seen as having lined up with Russia.
G20 Countries Supporting sanctions against Russia
Country Population million Area Sqr Km GDP PPP billion US$ GDP Nominal Billion US$
France 67.87 643,801 3,667 2,936
UK 67.32 242,495 3,752 3,376
Germany 83.19 357,022 4,743 4,319
Canada 38.65 9,984,670 2,237 2,221
USA 331.44 3,796,742 25,350 25,350
Italy 58.98 301,230 2,972 2,058
Australia 25.93 7,692,024 1,605 1,748
Countries not supporting sanctions against Russia
Country Population million Area Sqr Km GDP PPP billion US$ GDP Nominal Billion US$
1. Turkey 84.68 783,356 3,210 692
2. Mexico 126.01 1,972,550 2,715 1,322
3. Brazil 214.04 8,515,767 3,585 1,810
4. Argentina 47.33 2,780,400 1,195 564
5. India 1,407.56 3,287,263 11,745 3,535
6. Saudi Arabia 34.218 2,149,690 1,870 876
7. Japan 125.5 377,957 6,110 4,912
8 South Korea 51.74 100,363 2,735 1,804
9.China 1,412.6 9,596,961 30,180 19,910
10. Indonesia 275.77 1,904,589 3,995 4,691
11. South Africa 66.142 1,221,037 924 419
12. Russia Africa 145.47 17,098,246 4,365 1,829
It is clear that efforts to isolate Russia have not brought the result as desired by United States of America and European countries. Rather these sanctions are counterproductive and affecting European countries badly.
Spiking energy and food prices are now cutting deeply into household consumption and economic uncertainty is poised to restrain investment. Latest regional economic outlook lowers the growth forecasts for Europe. For advanced economy growth projections cut by one percent point to 3% in 2022, Inflation will increase 5.5% in advanced economies and 9.3% in emerging European economies. Oil prices are increasing which is severely damaging the growth targets and making the life in Europe miserable. In the Euro area, inflation reached 7.4% in March, the highest level since the introduction of the single currency. Four countries are facing double digit inflation in euro area core energy prices, which reached almost 45%. Sanctions against Russia badly affected global supply chain. Consumer confidence has dropped remarkably since the sanctions are imposed. In Europe 90 % gas consumed is imported and Russia provides half. Russia also accounts 27% of oil and 46% of coal imports. Defence spending going to rise significantly which will further exacerbate the situation and would be a great burden on economy. Many European companies like McDonald, Ikea left Russia which reduced their revenue significantly.
European Union and Russian conflict economists have defined as “the third asymmetric shock” that Europe had experienced in the last two decades after 2008 financial and economic crisis and the Covid 19 pandemic. This crisis will also spell out the end of globalization and it is going to might reshape alliances. EU is going to review protectionism similar will do USA. Russia Ukraine conflict has already created economic disruption and increased poverty, food , insecurity and inflation for beyond Eastern Europe. Ukraine grows enough food to feed 400 million people world-wide which include 50% of the world’s sunflower oil supply,10% of the worldwide grain supply, and 13% of the global corn supply. This food supply chain disruption has badly affected many European countries. Food prices already soared in Germany, UK and other countries. On 31st March, 2022 Vladimir Putin ordered the gas export to Europe should be paid in Rubles instead of euros. Demand to pay in rubles can lead to bypass the euro or dollar financial system and therefore continue to feed Russian State finance. Germany is worst hit by Ukraine war and cannot afford sanctions against Russia. Germany’s investor’s sentiments fell to its lowest level since the start of Covid 19 pandemic. The Zew Research Institute disclosed that economic sentiments index recorded the biggest decline in the 31st year history of its monthly poll of investors, reflecting fears that EU’s biggest economy could hit by a recession and soaring inflation as a result of sanctions against Russia and Ukraine war soaring energy prices and waning confidence and threatening to derail the what promised to be a second strong year of economic recovery from the Covid 19 pandemic in Europe.
In UK alone inflation and price hike made the lives of people miserable and many people are forced to abandon one time meals. Many families to save their electricity bills they are spending time in cheap restaurants. According to one survey 52% people stopped to meet with their friends. 44 % reduced driving their cars.
The German economy is at risk of shrinking nearly 2% this year if the war in Ukraine escalates and an embargo on Russian coal, oil and gas leads to restrictions on power providers and industry, according to the Bundesbank.
The estimate translates into a hit to output of about 5 percentage points compared to a March baseline, Germany’s central bank said in its monthly report.
Looking 25 years out, it is estimated that 80% of the EU’s natural gas will be imported, with Russia providing up to 60%, equating to one¬ fifth of the overall EU energy mix coming from Russia in the form of pipeline natural gas. This figure does not include the energy the EU will import from Russia in the form of oil, which is estimated to be as much as another one¬-tenth of the total energy mix. Thus, as the world’s major price¬-setter for natural gas, Russia— supplying one¬-third of the EU’s energy in 2030—will be in a position to use its energy supplies as levers of control by dictating terms. The negotiations that transpired with Ukraine at beginning of 2006 and with Belarus in the closing days of 2006 show the huge economic and political leverage Russia commands with countries dependent on its energy. A common phrase that is often repeated in Euro¬pean political discussion is “the EU and Russia are mutually dependent on one another respectively as buyer and supplier of energy.
To save the future generations world demand” Peace”. The stubborn attitude of Europe and America has been resulted in a lot of bloodshed in Afghanistan, Palestine, Iraq, and Libya. The result is nothing except that new powers on the horizon of world has been emerged. It would therefore be very difficult for USA and Europe to dictate the world. Countries claiming to support democracy but their actions regarding the global affairs are not compatible to their action. It is better to start negotiation to maintain peace and sooner it would be done the better is for global peace and later it would be paid attention the heavier the price would for the world.