According to NOAA experts, El
Nio, an ocean-heating phenomenon, is expected to start in the next months and
last through 2024.El Nio, an ocean-warming phenomenon, is over 90% certain to
occur this year. Experts have warned that it is expected to start in the
upcoming months and that there is a fair probability it will continue into 2024
and have a significant impact.
El Niño, "the little boy" in Spanish,is a climate phenomenon characterized by
the warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean, particularly along the coasts of South America. It occurs
irregularly, typically every two to seven years, significantly impacting weather
patterns worldwide. El Niño is part of a larger climate cycle known as the El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
An El Niño event is associated with a weakening or reversingof the prevailing
trade winds in the Pacific Ocean. Usually, the trade winds blow from east to
west, pushing warm surface waters toward the western Pacific. This causes calm,
nutrient-rich waters to rise to the surface along the western coasts of South
America, resulting in productive fishing grounds.During an El Niño event, the
trade winds weaken or reverse, disrupting the standard oceanic and atmospheric
circulation patterns. As a result, the warm surface waters that were pushed to
the western Pacific moved back eastward toward the coasts of South America. This
leads to a significant increase in sea surface temperatures in the central and
eastern tropical Pacific.
The warming of the sea surface temperatures affects global weather patterns. It
influences the position and strength of the jet stream, which can affect storm
tracks, precipitation patterns, and temperatures in different regions. El Niño
events often result in increased rainfall in the western Pacific, including
parts of Indonesia and Australia, while causing drought conditions in parts of
South America, particularly along the western coasts.The impacts of El Niño can
vary depending on its strength and duration. Extreme El Niño events can have
far-reaching effects on global climate patterns, affecting agriculture,
fisheries, and weather-related hazards such as hurricanes, droughts, and
floods.On the other hand, the counterpart of El Niño is La Niña, which
represents the cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the central and
eastern tropical Pacific. La Niña events typically follow El Niño events and
have opposite impacts on weather patterns.
Understanding and monitoring El Niño events is crucial for climate scientists,
meteorologists, and policymakers. It provides valuable information for climate
predictions and helps societies prepare for and mitigate the associated impacts
on agriculture, water resources, and other sectors.The first recorded
observation of El Niño occurred in the early 17th century by Spanish explorers
along the coasts of South America. However, it wasn't until the 20th century
that scientists began to study and understand the phenomenon more
comprehensively.Since reliable records have been kept, approximately23 El Niño
events have been identified from 1900 to 2021. These events have varied in
intensity and impact. Some of the notable El Niño events include:
1982-1983 El Niño: This event is often called the "super El Niño" and is
considered one of the strongest on record. It had significant global impacts,
including severe droughts in Australia and parts of Africa, heavy rainfall in
South America, and disruptions to fisheries and marine ecosystems.
1997-1998 El Niño: This event is another significant El Niño that affected
regions across the globe. It caused widespread flooding in several countries,
including Peru and Ecuador, and droughts in Indonesia and the Philippines. It
also had implications for global weather patterns, including altering hurricane
activity in the Atlantic.
2015-2016 El Niño: This event was classified as one of the most decisive El Niño
events of the modern era. It led to extreme weather conditions, such as droughts
in Southeast Asia and Africa, heavy rainfall in parts of South America, and a
record-breaking global average temperature in 2016.
It's important to note that El Niño events are part of a natural climate cycle
and occur irregularly. The timing, strength, and impacts of El Niño events can
vary, and they typically last for several months to a year or more. Scientists
continue to monitor and study El Niño and its effects to understand its patterns
better, improve predictions, and assess its relationship with climate change.
El Niño events can have varying impacts on different regions, including South
Asian countries like Pakistan. The specific effects of El Niño on Pakistan
depend on the strength and duration of the event. Here are some ways in which
Pakistan can be affected by El Niño:
Drought: El Niño events often lead to below-average rainfall in parts of South
Asia, including Pakistan. The weakened monsoon rains during El Niño years can
result in drought conditions, reduced water availability, and agricultural
losses. Droughts can harm crop production, water resources, and livestock,
impacting food security and the livelihoods of rural communities.
Heatwaves: El Niño events can contribute to higher temperatures in certain
regions, including South Asia. Pakistan may experience prolonged heatwaves and
scorching weather conditions, leading to heat-related illnesses, power
shortages, and stress on vulnerable populations.
Altered rainfall patterns: While El Niño is generally associated with reduced
rainfall in South Asia, its impacts on specific regions within Pakistan can
vary. Some parts of the country may experience below-average rain, while others
may receive increased precipitation during El Niño years. These alterations in
rainfall patterns can disrupt agricultural activities, affect water
availability, and potentially lead to flash floods or waterlogging in certain
areas.
Disruption of fisheries: El Niño events can affect marine ecosystems and disrupt
fisheries in the Arabian Sea, which borders Pakistan. Changes in ocean
temperatures and currents can lead to the displacement of fish populations,
impacting fishing communities and the fishing industry.
Regional climate variability: El Niño can influence weather patterns beyond
Pakistan's borders. It can affect the intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones
in the Arabian Sea, potentially increasing the risk of hurricanes and related
storm surges along the Pakistani coastline.
It is important to note that while El Niño events can have significant impacts,
other factors, such as local weather patterns and climate change, can also
influence Pakistan's climate and its vulnerability to these events. Monitoring
and understanding these climate phenomena is crucial for effective planning,
preparedness, and adaptation strategies to minimize the potential impacts on
various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and disaster risk
reduction.