The US had mounted extreme
pressure on the newly formed democratic government to annul peace treaty with
Maulanas Sufi and Fazlullah in Swat after the militants had penetrated Dir and
Buner in April 2009. Alarm bells were sounded that the militants were at the
verge of capturing Islamabad and the nukes. A joint resolution was passed by the
parliament and the Army tasked to confront the existential threat with full
force. No sooner the bases of Pakistani Taliban were demolished in Swat, Shangla,
Buner, Dir and Bajaur, USA exerted pressure to tackle the main base of TTP in
South Waziristan (SW). Dismantlement of TTP’s base in SW dismayed the schemers.
Had ISAF instead of withdrawing its border posts sealed the border in 2009
effectively, all the fleeing militants including their leaders could be nabbed
or killed and the genie of terrorism bottled up. However, the US and its allies
didn’t want to control terrorism. They wanted to weaken Pak Army and not TTP
that had been created with devious intentions.
Since Pak Army’s successes went against ill-motivated plans, the US in its bid
to cripple the Army decided to open new fronts with the help of runaway
terrorists. They were provided safe havens in Kunar and Nuristan, regrouped and
re-launched in 2011 in Dir, Mehmand, Bajaur and Chitral. These absconding
terrorists are now being equated with Haqqani network (HN) which is struggling
to liberate its country from foreign occupation. The US after failing to win
over Haqqanis has now decided to overplay HN threat and to sensationalize safe
havens in North Waziristan (NW). It also has decided declare HN as a terrorist
group. If so, it will maximize pressure on Pakistan. Last September, Mullen had
described HN as the ‘veritable arm’ of ISI.
Drone war was intensified to provoke pro-government militant groups in NW to
shelve peace treaty and pick up arms against security forces. Other reasons were
to push the Army to launch the much delayed operation and to compel HN to exit
from NW. There was a lull in drone strikes during the stoppage of NATO supplies
for seven months but after reopening of supply lines in July this year drone
attacks have once again picked up momentum. Not a single member of TTP has been
killed by drones. Attack on Kamra airbase on the night of 16 August by a band of
nine suicide bombers was aimed at destroying strategic assets and to impel the
Army to hasten to plunge into NW. This crude tactic was employed earlier on also
when a terrorist attack took place on GHQ on 10 October 2009, which forced Gen
Kayani to give a green signal for Operation Rah-e-Nijat in SW.
After persistent efforts since early 2010 and application of multiple pressures,
the US now claims that Pakistan has finally agreed to launch a joint and
coordinated operation in NW in concert with US troops. This decision had been
taken long time back but socio-politico-economic-operational constraints came in
the way. Even now firm decision in this regard has not been taken. GHQ has
turned down the US proposal of joint operation saying that the ISAF may do so on
other side of the border in Khost-Paktika provinces in coordination with Pak
Army’s operation whenever it is launched. GHQ also made it clear that its prime
focus will be on anti-Pakistan groups and not on anti-US elements as wished by
USA. Washington seems satisfied that at last its wish is being fulfilled and may
not contest these two points but HN will continue to haunt the US military as
long as it stays in Afghanistan. The US military has given clear hints that it
will take care of sanctuaries in Kunar and Nuristan and control cross border
raids provided Pakistan demolished safe havens of HN in NW.
In case an operation is launched in next few months, the situation will not be
as grim as was in 2010-2011. While Swat to a large extent has been rehabilitated
and secured, rehabilitation and development works under the aegis of Army in SW
are going on with speed and good progress has been achieved. Almost 75% of
displaced people have returned and are taking part in reconstruction and
business activities with fervor. Had the US lived up to its promise of setting
up ROZs in Waziristan, by now a world of change would have come in that war torn
region. Held up $1.1 billion CSF is being released which will enable the Army to
oil its war machinery.
Notwithstanding the relative improvement in security situation and the fact that
the trunk of armed forces remains as strong as ever, the fact is that restive
areas that had been controlled by the Army after paying a heavy price are again
being made turbulent by the powers that desire an operation to be launched in
NW. Distrust gap between USA and Pakistan has widened with little hope of its
abridgement. Civil administration is reluctant to take over its duties in
troubled areas pacified by the Army. Covert war by foreign agencies based in
Kabul is continuing as heretofore and cauldron of Balochistan is simmering. TTP
in FATA and BLA-BRA-BLF in Balochistan are being funded and equipped to keep the
flames of terrorism enflamed.
Sindh and Balochistan have become a single battle zone. Criminal elements in the
two neighboring provinces are militarily supporting each other since 1990s. Gun
running originate from Balochistan. Criminals seek refuge in either of the
provinces once the chase of the law enforcers becomes hot. Target killers of the
two provinces ultimately escape to South Africa once the noose tightens around
them and reappear when the noose is loosened. TTP and BLA, the two banned
terrorist groups are also linked with criminal elements. The entire chain of
criminals is backed by RAW, CIA and Mossad.
Sectarianism is being inflamed in Balochistan, Kurram Agency and
Gilgit-Baltistan by hidden forces. Karachi is bled by the militant wings of the
three ruling coalition parties together with external elements. Levlin Anatole,
a British historian makes a startling exposure in his book published in 2011
‘Pakistan a Hard Country’ that all the explosions and attacks in Pakistan are
being planned and carried out by CIA and its agents in the name of Taliban. This
is exactly what I and several other analysts had been highlighting. Think who
are the collaborators with paid terrorists? The US and al-Qaeda were not
long-term adversaries but partners.
Economic situation is going from bad to worse and the ruling regime is not
showing any inclination to improve its performance and put the house in order.
Discredited leadership is in no position to mould public opinion in favor of an
operation in NW particularly when it is well-understood that each operation had
resulted in a severe backlash. People are questioning as to why Pakistan is
being pressed to launch another operation when the US has decided to quit
Afghanistan by end 2014 and is desperately trying to find a political solution
to Afghan imbroglio by renewing peace talks with Taliban. There is widely held
view that real motive behind the US fixation on NW is to create a cause for all
militant groups to get united against Pak Army.
Politicians are least concerned about internal and external threats and plight
of the masses groaning under acute poverty. The rulers are manipulating to
extend their stay by another year so that they could give five-year extension to
President Zardari through act of parliament in 2013. The ones in opposition are
divided and wholly focused on gaining power. The religious parties/groups too
are divided and interpret religion through their respective narrow lenses. Under
the circumstances, obtaining politico-economic-military environment are still
not conducive for a military operation.
Courtesy: Asif Haroon
The writer is a retired Brig, a defence analyst and a columnist and author of
several books. Email:[email protected]