Agriculture represents the
backbone of our economy. It can serve as a launching pad for transition to a
knowledge economy, as it has a huge potential for revenue generation. But that
can happen only if agricultural practices are carried out on scientific lines
and use of technology maximised. The four major crops of Pakistan are wheat,
rice, cotton and sugarcane. They contribute about 37 percent of the total
agricultural income and about nine percent to the GDP of Pakistan.
Because of the wide fluctuations in productivity, the contribution to GDP has
been variable, making it imperative to diversify our crops in order to have
stable agricultural income and a predictable GDP. The minor crops in Pakistan
include vegetables, fruits, oil seeds and pulses. There is a high growth
potential in vegetables, fruits, flowers, livestock and fisheries that can be
tapped through proper planning and technological inputs but this potential
remains largely untapped because of lack of visionary leadership and proper
planning.
Wheat is the most important crop of Pakistan, with the largest acreage. It
contributes about three percent to the GDP. The national average yield is about
2.7 tons per hectare, whereas in Egypt the yields are 6.44 tons per hectare and
in European countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom they are
above seven tons per hectare. We presently produce about Rs220 billion worth of
wheat. If we can boost our yields to match those of Egypt, it can generate
another Rs350 billion, allowing us to systematically pay off the national debt
and make available funding for health and education.
However, the government has been reluctant to invest in research, water
reservoirs and dams and extension services so that the country continues to
suffer. Some progressive farmers in irrigated areas have been able to obtain
yields of 6-8 tons per hectare but they are very much a minority. In rain-fed
areas the yields are normally between 0.5 tons to 1.3 tons per hectare,
depending on the region and amount of rainfall. In irrigated areas the yields
are normally higher, in the range of 2.5 tons to 3.0 tons per hectare. Improved
semi-dwarf cultivars that are available in Pakistan can afford a yield of wheat
between 6-8 tons per hectare. It is possible to increase the yields
substantially with better extension services, judicious use of fertilisers and
pesticides, and greater access of water from storage reservoirs and dams that
need to be constructed.
Cotton represents an important fibre crop of Pakistan that generates about Rs250
billion to the national economy, and contributing about two percent to the
national GDP. Pakistan is the fourth-largest producer of cotton in the world,
but it is ranked at 10th in the world in terms of yields. The use of plant
biotechnology can help to develop better cotton varieties. Bt cotton produces a
pesticide internally and safeguards the plant against chewing insects. The
yields of Pakistani seed cotton and cotton fibre are both about half those of
China. A doubling of cotton yields is doable and it can add another Rs250
billion to the national economy.
Pakistan produces about 6.5 million tons of rice each year. Our yields are
however very low, being only about 1.7 tons per hectare, compared to 7.4 tons
per hectare produced by the USA, and 6.59 tons per hectare produced by China.
Similarly, our yields of maize (about 1.7 tons per hectare) are less than a
quarter of those obtained in France (8.2 tons per hectare). The yields of
sugarcane in Pakistan range from 40 tons per hectare in Punjab to 60 tons per
hectare in Sindh, which are dismally low compared to Egypt’s 120 tons per
hectare.
Pakistan needs to fund biotechnology research programmes in order to increase
yields. India established a separate Department of Biotechnology in 1986 that
supports about 5,000 scientists each year, provides funds to some 4,000
postdoctoral students, and its initiatives have led to some 5,000 publications.
Indian exports of biotechnology-based products are expected to reach $5 billion
in 2012 and exceed $50 billion within 15 years. Pakistan needs to tax
agricultural income and then invest 30 percent of the tax collected into
agricultural research and into the strengthening of extension services.
Pakistan faces tough times ahead as water shortage will have devastating
consequences by 2050 due to global warming. We need to prepare ourselves now for
the tough years ahead. Initially, global warming will cause large-scale melting
of snow on mountains, leading to huge floods. This water must be captured and
stored in dams and water reservoirs so that we are adequately prepared for long
periods of draught that will occur in subsequent decades.
Unfortunately, science, technology and innovation receive the lowest priority in
Pakistan, and loot and plunder is the order of the day. In order to emerge from
the trap of poverty, we require a visionary, honest and technologically
competent government. Our present system of democracy has been a complete
failure as it has allowed largely the most corrupt to come into power. These
leaders have looted and plundered the nation while the poor masses have groaned
under the weight of rising prices and lack of job opportunities, till they are
finally driven to sell their children, commit suicide or become criminals.
The judgments of the Supreme Court are ignored and ridiculed by corrupt
politicians without any contempt-of-court action against them. Gangs of
criminals roaming the streets of Karachi and other cities get away scot-free as
they are protected by corrupt politicians – the witnesses are either killed or
threatened into silence. The judges of our courts are also fearful of their
lives and I know some who have resigned their positions because of the threats
on their lives.
The failed system of democracy in Pakistan is strongly supported by Western
governments. It serves Western interests as it leads to docile and submissive
leaders who serve their foreign masters loyally. The stranglehold of the feudal
system thrives with no priority given to education. More than parliamentarians
have forged degrees and the degrees of another 250 are suspect. The Supreme
Court decision of verification of their degrees is flouted and ignored by the
Election Commission. The bigger the crook, the more respect he is given by the
government and the biggest crooks are conferred the highest civil awards. The
economy has nosedived and we are today ranked among the bottom six countries of
the world in terms of our expenditure on education.
The writer is president of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences, former federal
minister for science and technology and former chairman of the Higher Education
Commission. Email: [email protected]