“Unchecked ‘weaponization of
outer space’ and ‘prestige’ led space arms race has the potential to trigger
lethal ‘cascading effects’ for international peace and stability.”
Senator Sehar Kamran
Outer space is ‘global commons’ and ‘common heritage’ for all mankind. It has a
tremendous amount of significance for socioeconomic development. According to
the Bank of America, the current space market is valued at roughly $350 billion
and will continue to grow to reach roughly $2.7 trillion within the next three
decades. Countries and commercial entities are investing in telecommunication,
earth observation, and orbital manufacturing and private habitat and it will
further develop and increase the share of space economy in the future. Apart
from civilian and peaceful use of space, high tech advanced countries are using
the space for military purposes, and hence their defensive and offensive
military activities have the spectre of the arms race in the outer space. That
in turn, will further increase the potentially ruinous consequences by creating
the space debris and risking the relative stability in the outer space.
The issue of prevention of arms race in the outer space (PAROS) has been on the
agenda item of the Conference of Disarmament (CD) but up till now, no
substantive outcome or legally binding guidelines have emerged.
On 27 March 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in a national
address that India carried out maiden anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon test for the
first time. According to India’s DRDO press statement, the ‘Mission Shakti’ took
three minutes to destroy the intended target i.e. satellite at an altitude of
300 km, in low earth orbit (LEO). With this test, India joined the league of
three nations namely USA, Russia and China, who already demonstrated that
capability in the past.
India’s ASAT test once again highlighted the ineffectiveness of international
regimes governing the activities of outer space and failure to formulate the
binding rules to regulate countries space endeavours. Moreover, the absence of
‘no rules’ opens a window for states to exploit these legal loopholes for their
geopolitical and geostrategic considerations while threatening the global
prosperity on one hand and setting of a precedent for other states to follow
suit. Unchecked ‘weaponization of outer space’ and ‘prestige’ led space arms
race has the potential to trigger lethal ‘cascading effects’ for international
peace and stability.
Pakistan condemned the Indian ASAT test and according to Foreign Office press
statement “Pakistan remains a strong proponent of non-militarization of outer
space.” Furthermore, it stated that it’s a “matter of grave concern for the
international community not only in terms of generation of space debris but also
because of its ramifications for long term sustainability of peaceful space
activities. And if these moves were unchecked, it could pose serious
consequences for “global and regional peace, stability and security.”
In the context of the current state of play in South Asia, where strategic
stability is under tremendous pressure due to Modi’s irrational and delusional
blunders, since 14 February 2019, the threat of ‘nuclear nightmare’ has been
looming large on the horizon and currently, there is no hope that the security
situation will be diffused till the conclusion of Indian ‘General Elections’ in
May 2019. According to Indian domestic political analysts, the primary purpose
behind the ‘Balakot Misadventure’ and ‘ASAT test’ was to woo its electorates to
win the elections; and for this very purpose, Narendra Modi could go at any
length.
The recent statement of Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi added
further context to that premise. He said “India is planning a new attack on
Pakistan… this could take place between April 16 and 20,” and it is the
“responsibility of the international community” to shun their silence for the
larger stability of the region.
Given post-Balakot domestic and international scrutiny of India’s Ministry of
External Affairs and Indian Airforce false narrative regarding the tally of
casualties of alleged militants in Balakot and downing of F16 jets, subsequent
international reports regarding Indian claims tell different story and for
instance, the ‘Foreign Policy’ magazine’s exclusive report on ‘F16 Controversy’
further embarrassed the Indian air force and pushed PM Modi into tight spot.
According to Lara Seligman, “two senior U.S. defense officials with direct
knowledge of the situation told Foreign Policy that U.S. personnel recently
counted Islamabad’s F-16s and found none missing.”
Amidst increasing domestic criticism, Indian Air Vice Marshal R.G.K Kapoor held
a press conference and refuted the assertion of FP story. Air Vice Marshal
Kapoor stated that India has “irrefutable evidence” that Indian jet downed
Pakistani F-16 in a dogfight. Interestingly, in his concluding remarks, he said
that IAF cannot provide more information to the public due to “security and
confidentiality concerns.” That essentially means that there exists no such
information and if it had, India would have made it public to embarrass
Pakistan.
In a quid pro quo, DG ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor while commenting on Indian
Air Vice Marshal’s presser said that “repetitions do not make [the] truth a lie”
and fact is that PAF shot down two IAF jets, wreckage [has been] seen on the
ground by all.” Likewise, MIT Assistant Professor, VipinNarang said that “it
looks worse and worse for the Indians,” and it seems India “failed to impose
significant costs on Pakistan, [instead] lost a plane and a helicopter of its
own in the process.”
That said, India’s testing of ASAT capability again perceived as an attempt of
face-saving by the Modi government on one hand and divert the ‘microscopic’
scrutiny on the other. However, the abrupt response from NASA administration was
a setback as it briefly halted working with ISRO after the Indian ASAT test. The
NASA administration not only visualizes the test from the strategic stability
perspective but also as a threat to the concept of space as global commons.
In the background of these dangerous developments in the region, it appears that
Indian government narrative is not finding traction in national and
international level. Also, it remains to be seen how testing an ASAT capability
would elevate the socioeconomic status of a country whose seventy-five percent
of population is living under the abject poverty, 200 million people don’t have
sufficient access to food and 25 percent children do not have access to
education.