By Muhammad Latif
In international relations there are no permanent friends or foes. To further
the national aims and objectives countries keep changing their alliances to best
suit their national interests. The history of US-Pakistan relations is no
different. Since its infancy Pakistan opted for the US bloc preferring it over
the then second superpower Soviet Union. In the hindsight it will not be
unrealistic to conclude that Pakistan has paid a heavy price for this strategic
decision. Being member of SEATO and CENTO Pakistan extended full support to the
US against the USSR by providing it's airbases to US Air Force; U-2 flight from
Badaber in 1960 is a case in point.
However, when India was in the process of helping Mukti Bahini to create
Bangladesh and Pakistan Army got stranded in Dhaka, the promised 7th Fleet never
came to its rescue. Again in early 70s, Pakistan played a pivotal role in
bringing China and the US together and in late 70s Pakistan became a frontline
state to counter the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, which ultimately led to
the disintegration of Soviet Empire. While Pakistan had to pay a heavy price in
terms of accommodating over 4 million Afghan refugees who brought along
Kalashnikov drugs culture, sectarianism and other social evils besides handling
of Mujahideen created and funded by the US and Saudi Arabia respectively.
Surprisingly, the US reward came in the form of Pressler Amendment and resultant
sanctions against Pakistan. While Russia always took side with India on Kashmir
issue and vetoed almost all the resolutions at UN forum, the US has been
advising Pakistan to settle the dispute through bilateral talks. When India went
nuclear and Pakistan responded in quid pro quo, it again had to face a lot of
sanctions by the US and its allies. Contrarily, the US has been supporting India
become member of the prestigious Nuclear Suppliers Group while Pakistan is
always advised to cap its nuclear programme.
In the aftermath of 9/11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan was again
forced to support the US in overthrowing the Taliban government in Afghanistan
by paying an overwhelmingly higher price by fighting the War on Terror in its
Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan till today. In the process, thousands of
Pakistani soldiers and civilians fell prey to the menace of terrorism besides
billions of dollars loss to its economy. The reward as usual is no different;
i.e. drone attacks killing hundreds of innocent civilians in the so called
collateral damage, maligning Pakistan of harbouring terrorists in safe havens,
the rhetoric of do more, Operation Neptune Spear on 2 May 2011 inside Pakistan
against Osama bin Laden, limiting the role of Pakistan in the reconstruction
process of Afghanistan after the drawdown and giving a bigger piece of pie to
India.
Meanwhile, the Obama administration eagerly concluded strategic bilateral pacts
with India to include Defence Technology and Trade Initiative, India designated
as' major defence partner' to facilitate defence technology, combat exercises
and war games, joint projects to include Aircraft Carrier technologies and jet
engines, futuristic helicopters, infantry combat vehicles, F-16/ F-18 fighter
production line and billions of dollars arms deals to include C-17 globe master,
Poseidon-8, C-130 Super Hercules, Apache attack helicopters and Chinook heavy
lift helicopters while denying the same to Pakistan which has created a state of
strategic imbalance in the nuclear South East Asian region. So much for the
past.
For now, the Donald Trump syndrome has created an entirely new situation for the
whole world. He has openly declared Islam/ Muslims as enemy and banned entry of
citizens of seven Islamic countries in the US. Muslims are being harassed in the
US and there are widespread demonstrations across US and EU condemning the
policies of Donald Trump. For Pakistan his views are no different; in an
interview, he didn't mince his words by declaring nuclear Pakistan as most
dangerous country next to Iran and was openly planning to counter Pakistan by
strengthening India by equipping its already strong conventional forces.
Considering the prevailing environment and taking history as a guide, one
doesn't have to be a strategist or political analyst to predict the future of
US-Pakistan relations.
In this backdrop, Pakistan should remain ready to face coercive actions by India
to possibly include activation of LoC, misadventure of precision strikes/
conduct hot pursuit operations across the LOC to discredit Pakistan Army,
terrorist activities on soft targets, sectarian killings, creating law and order
situation in economic hub of Pakistan; Karachi through ethnic/ linguistic
groups, destabilizing Balochistan by funding, training and arming separatists,
cross border actions in FATA from Afghanistan and denying Pakistan of its due
water share according to Indus Water Treaty etc, and there could be a long list
on how an Indo-US nexus can coerce Pakistan by creating a situation of civil war
in the country to disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons through an
International Peace Keeping Force.
Now what should Pakistan do to counter the emerging scenarios? Pakistan should
immediately appoint a dynamic foreign minister capable of leading the team of
foreign missions to create a positive perception about Pakistan in the US and EU.
CPEC could serve as a game changer for Pakistan; potential beneficiaries of CPEC
should be brought together to counter any threat to destabilize Pakistan. We
should also endeavour to make a strategic alliance with Russia and China to
counter the impending threat.
On the home front, Pakistan should speed up the process of reforms in FATA and
bring it under a mutually agreed political umbrella to free its forces from
Western front. Dissident Baloch leaders be brought into the political
mainstream. Simultaneously, Baloch youth may be harnessed ad engaged in the
economic activity generated by CPEC to dispel the feelings of deprivation.
National Action Plan should be taken to its logical conclusion to clear the
menace of terrorism from the Pakistani soil once and for all. Speedy justice is
the key to the success of National Action Plan. Stable Karachi and Pakistan
Stock Market can also attract a lot of Direct Foreign Investment thereby
broadening international stakes for Pakistan. All elements of national power
need to work hand in glove to build a stable Pakistan, which is mutually
beneficial to all nations across the globe.
(The writer is a defence analyst based in Islamabad)