London based Science and
Development Network more generally known as SciDev.Net has released an analysis
of UK-based Met Office Hadley Centre’s report on global warming trends, reports
TV Padma. According to report another steep temperature rise is on the horizon,
following the warmest decade since records began.
SciDev.Net reports referring to the Hadley Centre’s information that at least
half of all post-2009 years could be hotter than 1998 — the warmest year to date
— said Vicky Pope, head of the centre's climate change advice division. The year
2009 is expected to be the fifth warmest in the last 160 years. The Earth has
warmed by about 0.15 degrees Celsius every ten years since the mid-1970s and all
years from 2001 have been in the top 11 warmest on record, the figures show.
This is despite a relative slowdown in the rate of global warming this decade
because of natural variations in ocean currents and the sun's activity — a
phenomenon now likely to end, resulting in the sharp climb in temperatures from
2010 onwards, according to the Hadley Centre. A consortium of UK climate
research institutes, led by the centre, is analyzing the impacts of global
warming with and without mitigation measures.
The report reiterates a prediction made in September that if emissions continue
to rise under a "business as usual" scenario, temperatures could rise beyond two
degrees Celsius more than pre-industrial levels between 2035 and 2055, reaching
four degrees Celsius higher as early as 2060. This would have major implications
such as reduced yields for all major cereal crops, as well as forest fires,
drought, glacier melting and flood risks, said Pope.
There is at least a 50 per cent chance of restricting global warming to two
degrees Celsius or less during this century, by peaking emissions in 2016 and
then reducing them by five per cent per year by 2100, the figures show. And
reducing emissions early could save at least 60 per cent of land that would
otherwise have become unsuitable for crop growth by 2080 — as well as reducing
the number of people affected by water shortages and those at risk of flood from
rising sea levels.
SciDev.Net is London-based electronic source for news, views and analysis on
science and technology relating to developing countries. SciDev.Net team, headed
by T.V. Padma, participated in recent Copenhagen climate talks in Denmark where
she also managed a live blog covering proceedings and events during the talks.