Pakistan is currently facing
devastating dry and cold weather, creating drought in the major part of country.
During the last two months, no major rain has reported and this is likely to
prevail till mid-January. Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasted that
mostly cold and dry weather would continue in most parts of the country during
the next couple of weeks.
MET department has also forecasted that a few westerly waves will reach to
central parts of Pakistan, resulting less than average rain and snow expected
during December and January this season. Situations are likely to improve in
January 2017 and near normal rainfall/snowfall are expected. Day temperature is
likely to remain slightly higher than normal during the period. Due to less
precipitation, ground water resources may experience further depletion in
future.
El Nino, the major cause of such situation, is an abnormal weather pattern,
caused by the warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, off the coast of
South America. This occurs when the normal trade winds weaken (or even reverse),
which lets the warm water that is usually found in the western Pacific flow
towards the east. Severe El Nino of 2015-16, although settled to normal in early
summer yet its influence has raised 2016 as the warmest year.
Precipitation, especially rain, has a significant impact on agriculture. All
plants require at least some water to survive therefore, rain being the most
effective source of watering is vital for agriculture. The prolonged dry spell
has delayed wheat crop sowing which may negatively influence its output,
especially in the rain-fed areas of the country. Wheat sowing in Pakistan starts
from November, but the current dry spell has caused a major delay in the crop's
sowing that may result in a decrease of up to 20 percent in the sowing target.
If the dry spell continues for some time, the country can miss the wheat sowing
as well as production target. Rain-fed areas of the country produce 10 percent
of total wheat production. According to a Government Official, for the current
year 2016-17, government has set wheat production target at 26.01 million tons
for Rabi sowing season from an area of 9.12 million hectares. Out of 26.01
million tons, Punjab is expected to produce 19.51 million tons, Sindh 4.2
million tons, Khyber Pakhtunkhawa 1.4 million tons and Balochistan 0.9 million
tons.
Drought in a country like Pakistan can have many devastating effects on
communities and the surrounding environment. The amount of damage depends on the
strength of the drought and the length of time an area is being facing the
drought conditions. This will be greatly affecting the poorer communities.
One impact of drought on communities is its effect on water supply. In current
dry season, almost all parts of the country are facing water shortage and some
water restrictions are being put into place by local governments apparently
pushed to ration their water consumption. Water may also pollute during times of
drought due to the lack of rainwater to dilute industrial and agricultural
chemicals. This toxic water can be harmful to plants and animals that use it and
make it difficult to clean for drinking water.
It is highly expected that crop production will fall and the shortage from the
current conditions, prices for food may increase because the demand for the crop
is much higher with the limited amount of production. It is possible that people
will not able to afford increasing prices during drought conditions; it is
possible for communities to suffer health problems because of the lack of
healthy food and clean water for sanitation.
A major impact of drought can be reduced electrical generation. Pakistan is
facing worse electric load sheading and energy shortage. The main source of
electricity is water obtained from northern area’s snow and glaciers. Most power
generation depends on the use of water for hydropower or coal-burning and
nuclear plants, so if water use is restricted, then power plants may need to be
shut down and more expensive kinds of energy generation such as burning natural
gas or oil may need to be used. This will be particularly a problem in summer
high temperatures.
Drought in Pakistan has become a frequent occurrence in the country. The drought
of 1998–2002, considered worst in 50 years, grip Balochistan especially the
western and central parts of the province almost all year round. The drought
started to dissipate during the end of 2002. In early 2003, La-Nina conditions
developed that brought massive winter rainfalls to all the regions of Pakistan
including Balochistan and Sindh. Subsequently, the monsoon season series of
heavy rainfall battered Sindh. At least 180 people killed and more than 700,000
people affected, more than 100,000 houses destroyed, thousands of acres of
standing crops in flood-hit areas damaged. Thousands of cattle and livestock
also killed during the flash flooding in Sindh.
The drought of 2004-05 was an on and off situation. The drought gripped the
lower parts of Pakistan mainly Sindh and Balochistan and no rain occurred in
Karachi as well as in Sindh in 2004. In 2005, the drought conditions continued
in the Sindh and Balochistan including Karachi city, but a post-monsoon low
pressure dumped heavy rains during September. The drought weakened but quickly
re-gained intensity and in 2006 fears of major drought like the extreme drought
of 1998-2002 caused a fear among the people. Pakistan received 40 percent less
rainfall in the winter of 2005 than average levels, while snowfall in many
northern areas was also 20-25 percent below normal. The drought only affected
Balochistan and Sindh as the upper parts of Pakistan remained unaffected. A weak
La-Nina developed during mid-2006 that allowed increase precipitation over Sindh
mainly coastal parts, which experienced urban flooding. Heavy winter rainfall
also ended the drought in Balochistan, the winter rains again flooded coastal
Sindh. The development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and strong La-Nina
in 2007 caused extreme precipitation in Sindh with coastal parts experienced
unusual high tropical activity.
Weak drought of mid 2009 mid 2010 developed over the upper parts of Pakistan
including Punjab, Khyber, Gilgit, Kashmir and Northern Balochistan. Sindh was
unaffected by this drought. The major cause of this drought was the development
of El-Nino which caused 30% below normal monsoon rains in the region. In Sindh,
mostly Karachi and Hyderabad experienced 30% above normal monsoon rains. Karachi
was again flooded with record-breaking rainfall. Lack of winter rains also
increased the chances of moderate to extreme drought in Punjab and KPK. In late
July 2010, heavy monsoon rains entered the region thus ending the four-month
drought period, the worst floods of Pakistan occurred later in the year of 2010.
This flood caused hundreds of causalities; more than one-fifth of Pakistan's
total land area and about 20 million people affected, mostly by destruction of
property, livelihood and infrastructure, with a death toll of up to 2,000.
It appears that a few years of drought or heavy precipitation in Pakistan will
prevail; we are unable to deal with uncertain situation in spite history of huge
disasters. It is evident that more dams and reservoir should be constructed to
store the rainwater from the flooding years and utilise it during drought time
otherwise life will be more drastic. The recent drought may be an utterance
towards forthcoming heavy rainfall. Are we ready to tackle this menace?
(Junaid Abdullah, the author, is a student at Bahria University, Islamabad).