An Analysis of Global Strengths
Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT):
In the inauguration of 2017 offers a conflicting picture of the global economy
for those trying to discern trends, challenges and opportunities. Concerns about
energy security and climate sustainability are converging-finally bringing
consensus in sight on the need for action in the United States, but prospects
for breaking the global deadlock are still years away. While some developing
countries are succeeding in bringing hundreds of millions out of poverty, too
many are still mired in a doom spiral of conflict, poverty, and disease- despite
the entry of new philanthropists, advocates and global corporations into the
field of development.
China’s projected 9.6 percent growth rate is sending ripples to the farthest
reaches of the planet-creating opportunities but also significant risks. The
United States remains in the “goldilocks” zone, but this is premised on
continued borrowing from abroad at historically unprecedented rates while many
Americans upheaval about widening inequality and lessening opportunity. While
the United States concentrates on civil war in the Middle East, most leaders in
the region are preoccupied with putting an outsized cohort of young people to
work and on the road to becoming productive citizens.
What are the most important challenges we face and what are the potential
solutions?
In Washington, D.C., where short-term political wrangling too often crowds out
the harder and more important long-term challenges, this inaugural publication
of Brookings Global Economy and Development seeks to put the spotlight squarely
back on the most consequential issues demanding action. It seeks to size these
issues, offering policymakers and leaders a concise and clear view of the
critical challenges as viewed by leading experts in the field.
From economic exclusion of youth in the Middle East to a pragmatic approach to
energy and environmental security, this “top 10” is intended to mark core issues
and shed light on opportunities and challenges with a broader and longer-term
perspective.
When we gather a year from now, we would expect many of these challenges to
remain front and central, but we would hope this publication would elevate their
visibility and help sustain a dialogue on their resolution.
1. Global Corporations, Global Impact
The private sector is becoming a significant player-indeed some might say the
dominant player-in shaping the global economic and development agenda.
Multinational corporations with operations that span the globe, and in some
cases capacities and networks that match those of governments, have a
particularly important role to play in helping to spread the opportunities and
mitigating some of the risks of globalization.
2. Global Governance Deadlock
Today’s global challenges-nuclear proliferation, the deadlock of global trade
negotiations, the threat of pandemic flu, and the fight against global
poverty-cannot be solved by yesterday’s international institutions.
To resolve the world’s most pressing problems, which touch all corners of the
globe, we must adapt our global governance approaches to be more representative
and thus more effective by encouraging and enabling the key affected countries
to take an active role in generating solutions.
3. Competing in a New Era of Globalization
Is the new episode of globalization just another wave or a seismic shift? While
individual elements feel familiar, the combined contours are unprecedented in
scale, speed, and scope.
4. Global Imbalances
Today’s interconnected world is in uncharted territory: the world’s sole
hegemonic power, the United States, nurses an addiction to foreign capital,
while up-and-coming powers such as China and oil exporters sustain surpluses of
increasing magnitudes. Some worry that the world is at a tipping point, where
only a dramatic shift in economic policy can alter the looming trajectory.
Others see underlying structural factors perpetuating gross imbalances for a
sustained period.
5. Rise of New Powers
The rise of “emerging powers”-a group that usually includes the so-called BRICs
(Brazil, Russia, India, and China), but which sometimes is applied more broadly
to include South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Pakistan and others-is
reshaping the global economy and, more gradually, international politics.
Growing much faster than the rest of the world, these economies are changing the
structure of international production and trade, the nature and direction of
capital flows, and the patterns of natural resource consumption. At the same
time, the growth of these countries is beginning to shift the global
distribution of power forcing the great powers to come to terms with the reality
that they will need to share management of international rules and systems in
the coming decades.
6. Economic Exclusion in the Middle East
The Middle East has before it what could be one of the greatest demographic
gifts in modern history-a potential economic windfall arising from a young and
economically active workforce.
Today, young people aged 15- to 24- years old account for 22 percent of the
region’s total population, the highest regional average worldwide. With the
right mix of policies, this demographic opportunity could be tapped to spur
economic growth and promote stability.
7. Energy and Environmental Security
Energy and environmental security have emerged as the primary issue on the
global agenda for 2017. Consensus has recently been forged on the potential for
long-term economic, national security and societal damage from insecure energy
supplies and environmental catastrophe, as well as the intense need for
technological advances that can provide low-polluting and secure energy sources.
Yet despite growing global momentum, there is still little agreement on the best
set of actions required to reduce global dependency on fossil fuels and
greenhouse gas emissions. Confounding the international policy challenge is the
disproportionate impact of high oil prices and global warming across nations,
insulating some countries from immediate concern while forcing others to press
for more rapid change.
8. Global Health Crises
From responding to the threat of pandemic flu to efforts to control the spread
of HIV/AIDS, the world has begun to realize that global health issues are
relevant for any citizen, regardless of nationality, residence or status.
Despite improvements in the world’s collective ability to battle disease with
advances in medicine and technology, global health needs remain unmet, making
the entire world vulnerable to health crises. In particular, the poor continue
to suffer disproportionately from inadequate health services, exacerbating their
struggle out of poverty.
9. Conflict and Poverty
In a world where boundaries and borders have blurred, and where seemingly
distant threats can dribble into immediate problems, the fight against global
poverty has become a fight for global security. American policymakers, who
traditionally have viewed security threats as involving bullets and bombs, are
increasingly focused on the link between poverty and conflict: the Pentagon’s
2006 Quadrennial Defense Review focuses on fighting the “long war,” declaring
that the U.S. military has a humanitarian role in “alleviating suffering, ?
Prevent disorder from spiraling into wider conflict or crisis.”
10. Global Poverty: New Actors, New Approaches
• The challenge of global poverty is more urgent than ever: over half the
world’s population-nearly 3 billion people-lives on less than $2 per day;
• Nearly 30,000 children die each day-about 11 million per year -because they’re
too poor to survive.
With such a toll, addressing poverty in new and more effective ways must be a
priority for the global policy agenda.
Fortunately, a variety of new actors are bringing new perspectives, new
approaches and new energy to the challenge.