IMF board likely to approve $7b bailout for Pakistan in August

This development follows a staff-level agreement reached between Pakistan and the IMF on July 12.

The IMF's Executive Board is expected to grant its final approval within four to six weeks after the staff-level agreement. However, before this meeting can occur, Pakistan must secure assurances of external financing.

In addition to the bailout package, the IMF has indicated that discussions will soon begin on a new program to address risks related to climate change and natural disasters. Sources in the Finance Ministry say the IMF has indicated considering Pakistan's proposed application to claim financing.

Sources reveal that Pakistan must identify and prioritize long-term projects focused on climate change. The IMF's Risk and Sustainability Financing (RSF) program, which offers affordable and long-term financing, will play a critical role in this regard.

For effective implementation, Pakistan will need to collaborate with other international organizations, the Finance Ministry sources add, to ensure comprehensive support and financing for these climate initiatives.

The upcoming IMF Board meeting marks a crucial step in Pakistan's financial recovery and its efforts to address both economic and environmental challenges.

On July 12, a new staff-level loan agreement was reached between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under which the country will receive $7 billion over 37 months.

In a statement issued by IMF’s Mission Chief to Pakistan Nathan Porter, "The Pakistani authorities and the IMF team have reached a staff-level agreement on a comprehensive program endorsed by the federal and provincial governments, that could be supported by a 37-month Extended Fund Arrangement (EFF) in the amount equivalent to SDR 5,320 million (or about US$7 billion at current exchange rates)."

It further said that the agreement was subject to approval by the International Monetary Fund's Executive Board and timely confirmation of necessary financing assurances from Pakistan's development and bilateral partners.

According to the IMF statement, the program aims at capitalising on the hard-won macroeconomic stability achieved over the past year, by intensifying efforts to enhance public finances, curb inflation, rebuild external buffers, and eliminate economic distortions to promote private sector-led growth.

The authorities' policy objectives include sustainable public finances, through a gradual fiscal consolidation based on reforms to broaden the tax base and remove exemptions, while increasing resources for critical development and social spending. In this regard, the authorities plan to increase tax revenues through measures of 1.5% of GDP in FY25 and 3% of GDP over the program.

Tax on retail, export, agriculture incomes

"The recently approved FY25 budget targets an underlying general government primary surplus of 1 percent of GDP (2 percent in headline terms). Revenue collections will be supported by simpler and fairer direct and indirect taxation, including by bringing net income from the retail, export, and agriculture sectors properly into the tax system. At the same time, the FY25 budget provides additional resources to expand social protection by increasing both the generosity and coverage of BISP, education, and health spending," the statement read.

The policy objectives further include a fairer balance of fiscal effort between the federal and provincial governments, which have agreed to rebalance spending activities in line with the 18th Amendment through the signature of a National Fiscal Pact that devolves to provincial governments higher spending for education, health, social protection, and regional public infrastructure investment, enabling improved public service provision.

"At the same time, the provinces will take steps to increase their own tax-collection efforts, including in sales tax on services and agricultural income tax. On the latter, all provinces are committed to fully harmonizing their Agriculture Income Tax regimes through legislative changes with the federal personal and corporate income tax regimes and this will become effective from January 1, 2025," the statement read.

SBP's flexible exchange rate

The IMF said that reducing inflation, deepening access to financing, and building strong external buffers were key to development and resilience. Monetary policy will continue to be focused on supporting disinflation, which will help protect real incomes, especially for the most vulnerable, it added.

"To buffer against shocks and build reserves, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will maintain a flexible exchange rate and continue to improve the functioning of the foreign exchange market and the transparency around FX operations. On financial stability, the authorities plan to take measures to deepen access to financing, while strengthening financial institutions, addressing any undercapitalized banks, and upgrading their crisis management framework," it added.

Withdrawing subsidies

Another policy objective includes restoring energy sector viability and minimizing fiscal risks through the timely adjustment of energy tariffs, decisive cost-reducing reforms, and refraining from further unnecessary expansion of generation capacity. The authorities remain committed to undertaking targeted subsidy reforms and replace cross-subsidies to households with direct and targeted BISP support, the IMF said.

“Promoting private sector and export dynamism by improving the business environment, creating a level-playing field for all businesses, and removing state distortions. In this regard, the authorities are advancing efforts to improve SOE operations and management as well as privatization (with the highest priority given to the most profitable SOEs) and strengthening transparency and governance around the Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund and its operations," it added.

The global lender further said Pakistan is also phasing out incentives to Special Economic Zones, agricultural support prices and associated subsidies, and refraining from new regulatory or tax-based incentives, or any guaranteed return that could distort the investment landscape, including for projects channelled through the Special Investment Facilitation Council.

"The authorities have also committed to advance anti-corruption as well as governance and transparency reforms, and gradually liberalize trade policy," it concluded.

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IMF board likely to approve $7b bailout for Pakistan in August

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